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Expecting The Unexpected

Air Safety Week, April 2, 2007

Terror Tactics Take A New Turn

When terrorists flew airliners into the World Trade Center, it would be fair to say the element of surprise had been fully exploited.

Only one prognosis for that scenario had ever appeared in public and that was a teenage boy's Nov. 30, 2000 innocent question on an Airliners.net forum about the possible effect of a fully fuelled 707 being flown into a WTC skyscraper (see tinyurl.com/y91).

MD90's hypothetical forum posting elicited 19 replies, the last on Dec. 2, 2000, and then the thread faded into obscurity.

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However, it had debated the destructive effects of such an act, mentioned terrorists and the use of a 757. Coincidence? When you look at the timing of Al Qaeda confessor Khalid Sheikh Mohammad's plot for Sept. 11, 2001, some 10 months later, you have to wonder about his inspiration.

It appears that inspiration can come from both theoretical concept and events. The distinct advantage that terrorists have is that they can call the shots, the timing and the tactics. They just need some inspiration. Recent events in Sri Lanka might provide that. But first some background on the risk riddles that remain unresolved.

The preoccupation with both internal and external terror threats to aviation centers around MANPADS (Man-Portable Air-Defense System). Congress is agitating for a solution, but the Air Transport Association is rejecting, on behalf of its member airlines, the prospective carriage of any detect, deter, deflect or destroy technologies such as Northrop Grumman's Guardian.

Despite the airline's reluctance, we are now in the $109 million, third phase of a Homeland Security Dept. study of the feasibility of equipping the U.S. commercial aircraft fleet. FedEx will be flying 11 MD-10s with NG's directed infrared countermeasures (DIRCM) technology over the next 18 months, testing whether the equipment, developed for the military, is cost-effective and reliable enough for commercial aircraft operations.

BAe Systems, paired with American Airlines, is employing BAe's "JetEye," based on its advanced threat infrared countermeasures (ATIRCM) system used on U.S. Army aircraft. BAe has experimentally mounted JetEye on an American Airlines Boeing 767. These systems are based upon tried and true military kit but the cost of even subsidized deployment fleet-wide would be prohibitive.

The life-long drag, weight, training and fuel penalties would erode airline profits. Maintenance of such systems is also a hassle. It would cost between $1 million and $3 million to put the missile warning and DIRCM systems on each aircraft and on top of that are supply and spares issues, plus maintenance costs, the Department of Homeland Security's technology chief, Jay Cohen said at a recent Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association conference.

The airlines, some of which are just emerging from bankruptcy, are "not fond of that idea," he said. Would it become a no-go item? How effective would it be? What would be the false alarm rate? How safe is it for third parties? What are the alternatives?

Raytheon has developed a microwave-based airfield defense concept for protection against surface-to-air missiles. This defensive capability has been refined for commercial airports to make it part of a layered defense to counter the terrorist MANPADS threat at civilian airfields. Vigilant Eagle uses a simple Active Protection technique of illuminating the missile body with electromagnetic energy tailored to distract the missile's tracking sensors and homing control.

When located at a commercial airport, Vigilant Eagle would create a dome of protection around the airport, protecting all aircraft during their vulnerable takeoff and landing phases of flight. The cost of mounting and manning such a system nationwide? Immense. And not being organic, what about protection at international destinations worldwide? That's probably where the real threat lies: overseas.

Homeland Security's latest initiative involves placing a drone in a perpetual orbit at 65,000 feet over major airports. It's part of a broader effort called "Project Chloe." The Drone's warning indicators would theoretically detect the ultraviolet plume (UV) from a missile's rocket booster and trigger an anti-missile laser, which could be fired from the drone. That laser would lock on to the missile, essentially blinding its ability to pursuit- track its target.

Kerry Wilson, deputy administrator of Homeland Security's anti-missile program, says the robot orbiter will be under testing soon on station over the Patuxent River Naval Air Station near Washington. Yet to be proven: Whether or not the UV detection technology can be seduced or cloaked by countermeasures and whether it will work through deep cloud layers, heavy precipitation and in all types of convective weather.

If it does function per design, it might be a viable area protection system. From 65,000 feet, you can "see" quite a few major airports, but the range capability of an onboard laser tailored to the power generation of the RQ4 Global Hawk UAV would probably be quite limited. So, alternatively and additionally, the missile could be drone-detected but the engagement would then be delegated to an in situ Valiant Eagle site on the ground at the affected airport.

Government Industry

Expecting The Unexpected

Air Safety Week, April 2, 2007

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