Aviation in the Doldrums

Air Safety Week, April 13, 2009

The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) annual aviation forecast predicts a return to growth for air travel after the global economic recession runs its course this year.

Due to the current worldwide economic downturn, the FAA's optimistic 16- year forecast for 2009-2025 predicts domestic passenger enplanements to decrease by 7.8 percent in 2009 and then grow an average of 2.7 percent per year during the remaining 15-year forecast period.

Last year, the FAA predicted that U.S. airlines would reach a billion passengers a year by 2016, The latest forecast now projects U.S. air carriers to reach one billion air travelers annually in 2021. The number of passengers on U.S. airlines domestically and internationally is forecast to increase from 757.4 million in 2008 to 1.1 billion in 2025.

U.S. aircraft operations are predicted to suffer a 5.7 percent decrease in 2009 from 2008 levels. Beginning in 2010, the agency expects operations to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent for the remainder of the forecast period.

"The FAA continues to forecast long term aviation growth, despite global economic conditions. Since 2000, U.S. airlines have dealt with the impacts of 9/11, heightened concerns about pandemics, the bankruptcy of four network carriers, record high fuel prices and the most serious economic downturn since the Great Depression," the FAA said. "With eight of the world's top ten economies in recession as of January 2009, the global economy is poised to perform worse than any other period during the past 60 years," it added.

While demand for 70-90 seat aircraft will continue to increase, the FAA expects the number of 50-seat regional jets will fall. Falling oil prices will offset some of the decline in demand, allowing U.S. carriers to collectively be profitable this year, the FAA believes.

Last year, U.S. passenger and cargo airlines reported operating losses of $2 billion, compared with an operating profit of $10.1 billion in 2007. Revenue rose 8.8 percent but costs grew 16.9 percent as fuel prices hit an all-time high in July before tumbling.

International industry development, growth, and investment over the past several years have allowed Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) to evolve from remotely piloted vehicles with limited capabilities to semi and fully autonomous systems for commercial applications.

There are some 100 U.S. companies, academic institutions, and government organizations developing over 300 UAS designs. Currently, the U.S. Government uses unmanned aircraft for military combat, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

The UAS term is used because it includes the entire system (aircraft, data links, control station and other elements). UAS also vary widely in size, shape, and capabilities. Some unmanned aircraft weigh 1,900 pounds and can remain aloft for 30 hours or more, because there is no need for them to land to change pilots. Some are 6 inches long. Others can perform dangerous missions without risking loss of life. In its broadest context, there are three major market segments: military, civil government, and commercial.

While market drivers and dynamics among these segments differ significantly, they share common objectives: to provide a service that cannot be accomplished by manned aircraft and/or to perform an existing manned operation at a lower cost. Because of increased interest and activity, UAS have the potential to become a major part of the commercial aerospace industry within the United States.

Working with industry, the FAA is starting to create regulations for small UAS to fly in the airspace. To this end, an Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ARC) comprised of industry, associations, and other government agencies has been formed. This ARC will recommend defining and developing necessary interim policy guidance with corresponding training material for operating a small size category UAS within the National Airspace System.

Federal agencies are planning to increase their use of UAS. State and local governments envision using UAS to aid in law enforcement and firefighting. Potential commercial uses are also possible, for example, in real estate photography or pipeline inspection. UAS could perform some manned aircraft missions with less noise and fewer emissions.

"The new UAS technologies under development today may have a profound impact on all aviation. The investments and the technological advances made by military organizations have generated a growing interest in their potential use for civil government, scientific research, and commercial applications.

"Once the regulatory framework is in place and developers can safely test and evaluate their products within the NAS, we expect significant growth in the civil and commercial UAS market," the FAA believes.

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