The Relentless March of the Robot Planes

Air Safety Week, August 7, 2006

The Move Toward Ultimate Automation

The world's militaries are increasingly turning to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to fight the asymmetrical guerilla wars of the 21st century. However, a chronic shortage of adequately trained pilots may accelerate the "pilotless" trend in the civilian sector as well, with sanguine consequences for aviation safety and security.

India and China have been the first to feel the pinch as they expand their commercial aviation sectors and find experienced pilots hard to come by. China has been outsourcing its ab initio pilot training all over the world. Meanwhile, despite raising their pilot retirement age to 65, some Indian airlines are now severely pilot undermanned and face hiring bans imposed by the International Federation of Air Line Pilots Associations (IFALPA) and the Indian Air Force. Because of their burgeoning growth, these airlines are being forced to cancel sectors because of a lack of crews.

Grizzled old veterans will say: "So what? Airline boom/bust hiring has been a factor for years. You need demand to generate supply." However, things may be just a little different this time around. U.S. airlines are finding that an average of only one in four furloughed pilots are returning to the fold, the rest reticent because of lost pensions, wage downscaling, longer duty hours and a healthy economy. Time-honored pilot seniority systems are under challenge and the profession now faces more uncertainty than ever. Consequently, scores of potential returnees are returning to other more satisfying, secure or remunerative occupations.

Anemia (or, No Young Blood)

Of greater concern for the future is that flight training schools are finding it hard to attract students. The FAA has seen the writing on the wall. FAA Administrator Marion Blakey started beating the recruitment drum during her recent visit to the EAA Fly-in at Oshkosh. Ms. Blakey appealed to those under 21 to "rise to their feet" and be identified as the aviators of tomorrow. No doubt some did. However, few of them will beat a path to their local flight school to pay $250 per instructional flight hour - just to get a foot in the door. Wandering the flight lines at Oshkosh you will likewise note that the young and the restless are generally absent. All the enthusiasts are greying, and very aware that their sport has somehow lost its appeal to youth.

Meanwhile, according to the Airline Pilots Assn. (ALPA), 56 percent of airline pilots don't support any extension of the age 60 mandatory retirement age. The Allied Pilots Assn. (APA) is also supporting the Age 60 Rule but the SWA Pilots Assn. (SWAPA) is pressing for a change. A group calling itself Airline Pilots Against Age Discrimination (APAD) is lobbying Congress hard for an extension to age 65. Unfortunately, although they concede that it's impossible to pinpoint an age when skills will slip, all the old medical arguments against any extension are still valid and hard to overturn. New evidence crops up all the time. On July 25, a group of Australians leaving Denpasar, Bali on Garuda Flt 722 got a double whammy wake-up call on the issue. First up their aircraft aborted its takeoff and then later, an ambulance crew carted the captain off the A330, dead from a heart attack on takeoff. The expired captain was well under age 60.

The FAA is also against any change. "We don't believe there is any medical data that would justify changing the date. There is a degradation of physical capacity and awareness as you get older," spokesman Les Dorr said. That position has not changed much since the agency first studied the issue after pilots initially objected to the rule in the early 1960s, arguing that the rule was imposed because of economic factors rather than safety concerns. Despite the support of ALPA and the FAA for age 60, the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee passed in executive session a bill that would push the mandatory retirement age to 65. The bill was sponsored by Sen. James Inhofe (R- Okla.). He is also a pilot.

Expansion Pains

In this climate of poor recruitment and a growing wealth of inexperience, there will likely be no buffer offered by any retirement age extensions. Even if a concession were gained, other nations may not permit visits by aged pilots. Blakey was touting, in her "Meet the Boss" speech, an expected two to three times growth factor for commercial aviation over the next 20 years. She also conceded that "the system" as it exists now would not be able to handle the foreseen rate of expansion. And she may well be right. You can build the planes, find the passengers and redraw the airways, but you can't easily build enthusiasm, discipline or experience into recruited cockpit operators. Will there be a global dearth of pilot talent due to the expansive commercial sector? Will the new light sports planes rejuvenate the aviating spirit of the next generation? That will very much depend on that old fallback of government subsidy and industry support--as factored by foresight and planning. But it tends to be like the weather, in that everybody talks about it yet few do anything about it.