Luck Ran Out

Air Safety Week, Oct 18, 2004

The fatal crash of an MK Airlines B747 freighter on takeoff Oct. 14 at Halifax, Canada, "ends an unprecedented run of good luck," according to Paul Hayes of UK-based aviation consultancy Airclaims. The last fatal accident involving a transport category aircraft occurred 285 days ago, involving the Jan. 3 crash of an Egyptian Flash Air B737 at Sharm-el-Sheikh with 148 passengers and crew aboard. According to Hayes, about 20 percent of the 353 fatal accidents involving Western built jets since 1970 occur within a week of one another. Less than 10 percent of the accidents have occurred after a 90-day gap and only one percent have followed a six month hiatus. The grouping, Hayes said, "Could be considered 'bad news for the air safety message,' as the news media and public perception attach far more significance to similar events happening in quick succession." As for quick succession, Oct. 14 was one of those relatively rare days where two accidents occur on the same day. The MK Airlines B747 crashed at 0350L, and a Pinnacle Airlines regional jet crashed at about 2230L, also on the 14th. "Although, given the different local time zones, there was probably slightly over 24 hours between them," Hayes told ASW. >> Hayes, e-mail paul.hayes@airclaims.com <<

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