FAA Issues New Safety Goals - NTSB Says Existing Risks Not Being Reduced

Air Safety Week, Nov 15, 2004

The validity of the data serving as the basis for this review has been challenged. In a Sept. 23, 2003, report to Rep. James Oberstar (D-Minn.), ranking member of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, the General Accounting Office (GAO) said, "The possibility exists for underreporting by air traffic controllers."

"The DOT IG [Department of Transportation Inspector General] found that in one instance [the] FAA rated an operational error as moderate that was less than 12 seconds from becoming a midair collision," the GAO said.

Indeed, the Jan. 21, 2003, DOT IG report to which the GAO referred, called for a reexamination of the new severity rating system implemented by the FAA. "Some operational errors still pose a significant safety risk, with an average of three operational errors per day and one serious error every three days (in which a collision was barely averted)," the DOT IG report noted.

Given the dubious completeness of the raw numbers and the severity scores, two views might be taken of the development to use an error rate rather than the number of errors. One is that, having established a modest goal to reduce operational errors by 10 percent over five years, a target that was not met in fiscal 2004, and with the looming implementation of DRVSM, the FAA plans to finesse the statistics, using rates to blunt the safety implications of a rising number of operational errors.

The other view is that precision comes from variety, and that the use of error rates provides an additional perspective on system performance.

By this argument, to harken back to some of the other safety metrics, non-fatal accidents ought to be included in Part 121 and GA measures of safety performance.

(For full text of Flight Plan 2005-2009, see www.faa.gov/aboutfaa/FP-final.pdf. A compilation of turbulence-related injuries may be viewed at www.iasa.com.au/turb.htm )

Zero For Three

NTSB actions Nov. 10 on "Most Wanted" aviation safety recommendations:

Fuel/Air Vapors in Fuel Tanks: preclude operations of transport category aircraft with explosive vapors in fuel tanks.

* Placed on "Most Wanted" list: May 1997.

* Previous status: Open - Acceptable Response

* Revised status: Open - Unacceptable Response

* Rationale: Lack of FAA initiatives on interim measures. Overall implementation progressing too slowly.

Airframe structural icing: reduce the dangers of flying in icing conditions.

* Placed on "Most Wanted" list: May 1997

* Previous status: Open - Acceptable Response

* Revised status: Open - Unacceptable Response

* Rationale: The oldest icing recommendations on the list date back eight years. FAA lack of progress cited.

Runway incursions: install a system that provides warning of probable collision directly to cockpit crews.

* Placed on "Most Wanted" list: Sept. 1990

* Previous status: Open - Acceptable Response

* Revised status: Open - Unacceptable Response

* Rationale: Aug. 19 near disaster at Los Angeles between a B747 and a B737 was not reported to the system, and reflects inadequate AMASS warning to the tower, not to the pilots. Chairman Ellen Engleman-Connors said, "The fact that such incidents are not being reported casts doubt on the FAA's claims that the runway incursion rate is declining." Source: NTSB