Modems: Cable and ADSL Modem Market Shares Separate the Market Leaders From the Spin Doctors; Analog Modems Recover After Slow 1H98 - Industry Trend or Event

EDGE, On & About AT&T, March 8, 1999

The first report in Cahners In-Stat Group's new Analog and Digital Modem Quarterly service revealed that despite the hype, actual shipment information shows that of the many vendors that have announced products, only an elite group are shipping in volume.

In addition, for the fourth consecutive quarter, cable modems are clearly outpacing ADSL modem shipments.

Cahners In-Stat Group also found: * Cisco, Nortel, Alcatel and Paradyne led the ADSL market with 32%, 15%, 13% and 5% unit market share respectively for Q498.

* Cisco and Alcatel led for year-end 1998 with 27% and 17% market share.

* The cable modem market is top heavy with Motorola and Bay Networks totaling over 60% of the market in Q498.

* Motorola remained the market leader throughout 1998, ending the year with 40% market share, followed by Bay Networks, Com21 and Terayon with 24%, 8% and 6% unit market share respectively.

"Early service provider customer wins have been critical for vendors vying for both mind share and market share in the cable and ADSL modem markets," said Shannon Pleasant, senior analyst with Cahners In-Stat Group.

"This market will continue to be volatile over the next year as the battle between proprietary versus standards-based systems heats-up and service providers broaden existing deployments."

The new report, Analog and Digital Modem Market Shares, also reveals the continuing recovery of the analog modem market, which grew 7% sequentially in Q498, representing 14 million modems shipped and $1.4 billion in sales. 3Com led the market with 41% unit share for Q498 and 38% share for year-end 1998.

Internal board manufacturers, CIS/Wisecom and Maxtech rounded out the top three with 10% and 7% market share. These two vendors continue to take advantage of the shift towards low-cost internal modems sold directly to the PC OEM channel and bundled with new PC shipments.

Cahners In-Stat Group is a high-technology market research firm with comprehensive understanding of computer and convergence, networking, wireless, telecommunications, Internet and semiconductor markets.

Headquartered in Newton, offices are also located in Scottsdale, Ariz. and San Jose, Calif. Cahners In-Stat Group is part of Cahners Business Information, the largest publisher of specialized business publications in the United States and a division of Reed Elsevier. FMI: http://www.cahnersinstat.com.