Business Barometer - housing sales, company sales and profits - Statistical Data Included

Home Channel News, Sept 17, 2001

First Union Securities - 2001 Financial Review

Equity performance

Residential housing analysis

U.S. single-family new-house sales and inventory, 1990-2001, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

Sales beat analysts' expectations

Sales of new homes rose 4.9 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 950,000 units from a downwardly adjusted 906,000 units in June. Even though sales for June, May and April were revised downward significantly (which may impact 2Q GDP), sales have hovered above the 900,000 unit level for five out of seven months this year. This torrid pace, if sustained, would surpass the record 886,000 homes sold in 1998.

Low costs of financial and a turn toward investments that aren't stocks and bonds are each contributing to the sustained high level of new-home sales. The 30-ear mortgage rate is 100 basis points below this time last year. According to the National Association of Realtors, every 1 percentage-point drop in mortgage rates means that three million additional households become qualified to buy a home.

The inventory of homes available for sales fell to a 3.8-month supply in July from a 4-month supply in June; builders have been very good at managing their inventory levels.

One interesting caveat from this report is that newhome sales prices are not rising as fast as existing home sales prices. year-to-year, median new-home sales prices are down 0.4 percent compared to an increase of 8.8 percent for median existing homes.

Sources: First Union Securities, U.S. Census Dept., company financial reports.

Equity performance
                                   Six Months
                                 2001 ($mil.)
Company                                   Net     Net  EBITDA
                                        Sales  Income
RETAILERS/DISTRIBUTORS
BMHC                                     $492      $9     $25
Home Depot                             26,776   1,556   2,889
Hughes Supply                             775       6      25
Huttig Building Products                  467       5      17
Lowes Cos.                             11,403     554   1,207
Universal Forest Products                 771      19      50
Wickes                                    459     (6)       7
FOREST PRODUCTS COMPANIES
Georgia-Pacific                       $12,290  ($108)  $1,345
Louisiana-Pacific                       1,209    (99)      27
Weyerhaeuser                            7,405     278   1,011
BUILDING PRODUCTS MANUFACTURERS
American Woodmark                        $203      $9     $28
Black & Decker                          2,049      75     170
Elcor                                     224       3      14
Masco                                   3,996     254     618
Nortek                                  1,066      17     108
Sherwin Williams                        2,566     127     304
HOME BUILDERS
Centex                                 $1,709     $75    $166
Lennar                                  2,496     148     318
Pulte                                   1,855      99     206
                                             Six Months
                                           2000 ($mil.)
Company                              EPS            Net     Net
                                                  Sales  Income
RETAILERS/DISTRIBUTORS
BMHC                               $0.90           $505     $12
Home Depot                          0.66         23,731   1,466
Hughes Supply                       0.27            831      14
Huttig Building Products            0.25            568       9
Lowes Cos.                          0.71          9,731     467
Universal Forest Products           0.95            736      19
Wickes                             -0.66            497     (2)
FOREST PRODUCTS COMPANIES
Georgia-Pacific                   ($0.47)       $11,108    $400
Louisiana-Pacific                  (0.95)         1,662      79
Weyerhaeuser                        1.27          8,114     447
BUILDING PRODUCTS MANUFACTURERS
American Woodmark                  $1.08           $184      $6
Black & Decker                      0.92          2,164     143
Elcor                               0.15            217      13
Masco                               0.55          3,617     359
Nortek                              1.55          1,092      23
Sherwin Williams                    0.80          2,651     157
HOME BUILDERS
Centex                             $1.22         $1,437     $48
Lennar                              2.15          1,609      59
Pulte                               2.30          1,758      72
                                                   2001/2000 Six
                                                Month Change (%)
Company                          EBITDA    EPS               Net
                                                           Sales
RETAILERS/DISTRIBUTORS
BMHC                                $31  $0.72            (2.6%)
Home Depot                        2,661   0.62             11.4
Hughes Supply                        41   0.62             (7.2)
Huttig Building Products             24   0.44            (21.6)
Lowes Cos.                          983   0.61             14.7
Universal Forest Products            48   0.93              4.5
Wickes                               13  -0.20             (8.3)
FOREST PRODUCTS COMPANIES
Georgia-Pacific                  $1,573  $2.34              9.6%
Louisiana-Pacific                   311   0.76            (37.5)
Weyerhaeuser                      1,358   1.93             (9.6)
BUILDING PRODUCTS MANUFACTURERS
American Woodmark                   $20  $0.71              9.4%
Black & Decker                      247   1.66             (5.6)
Elcor                                26   0.62               3.1
Masco                               687   0.80               9.5
Nortek                              118   2.01             (2.4)
Sherwin Williams                    362   0.96             (3.3)
HOME BUILDERS
Centex                             $113  $0.81             15.9%
Lennar                              144   1.03              35.5
Pulte                               154   1.71               5.2
Company                              Net   EBITDA      EPS
                                  Income
RETAILERS/DISTRIBUTORS
BMHC                             (33.3%)  (24.0%)    20.0%
Home Depot                           5.8      7.9      6.1
Hughes Supply                     (133.3)   (64.0)  (129.6)
Huttig Building Products          (80.0)   (36.2)   (76.0)
Lowes Cos.                          15.7     18.6     14.1
Universal Forest Products            0.0      4.6      2.1
Wickes                              66.7   (85.7)     69.7
FOREST PRODUCTS COMPANIES
Georgia-Pacific                   470.4%       nm       nm
Louisiana-Pacific                  179.8       nm       nm
Weyerhaeuser                      (60.8)   (34.3)   (52.0)
BUILDING PRODUCTS MANUFACTURERS
American Woodmark                  34.1%    28.6%    34.3%
Black & Decker                    (90.7)   (45.3)   (80.4)
Elcor                            (333.3)   (85.7)  (313.3)
Masco                             (41.3)   (11.2)   (45.5)
Nortek                            (35.3)    (9.3)   (29.7)
Sherwin Williams                  (23.6)   (19.1)   (20.0)
HOME BUILDERS
Centex                             36.0%    31.9%    33.6%
Lennar                              60.1     54.7     52.1
Pulte                               27.3     25.2     25.7