Hope, however hidden, springs eternal - Expansion still evident - Brief Article

Home Channel News, Oct 22, 2001 by Scott Larson

Amid a steady drumbeat of layoffs, budget cuts and downwardly revised results, a colleague recently came across this relatively promising headline in the Orlando Sentinel: Chains haven't shelved expansion plans -- yet.

Turning aside for a second from the "yet" part, such news is surely welcome in a year in which precious little seems to have gone right. Funny how something vaguely foreboding can seem downright positive given what we've been through the past 12 months.

The piece, which was distributed across the nation's newswires, went on to detail how retail chains ranging from Wal-Mart to Play It Again Sports as well as Home Depot and Lowe's have steered a steady course when it comes to opening planned new stores in the Orlando area. What, if anything, that says about the short-term prospects for an ailing sector at large isn't clear, the story went on to point out.

But another item plucked from the general gloom pervading the newswires a day later made me wonder if there wasn't the tiny hint of a trend: "U.S. consumers bouncing back in wake of terrorist attacks," this headline by Dow Jones proclaimed. "Seventy-four percent of respondents consider it 'patriotic duty' to maintain spending levels, according to the survey."

The story -- about a Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 4 by Deloitte Research, an arm of the giant consulting firm with the same name -- went on to note that 70 percent of Americans plan to spend about the same amount as last year on upcoming holiday purchases. The news was especially bright for those companies making and selling home improvement products: 15 percent of survey respondents said that they plan to spend more money on such items in the coming months.

Such sentiment, it turns out, echoes what we are hearing at National Home Center News. In putting together her story on the sector's specialty dealers, senior editor Terry Evans reports (see page 14) that many flooring, paint and decor retailers are intent on investing for what they see as a pending economic rebound. New-store openings and geographic expansion remain a high priority within these retailers' plans, and some are already anticipating sales increases for the current year.

"We know there's a manufacturing downturn," notes Lydia Bazarko, director of corporate planning for SherwinWilliams, on page 14. "But we feel this is an investment period which will position us when the economy comes out of its current slump."

Clearly, not everyone is so positive. Even as I write there is a story on our Internet site about Huttig Building Products, which is revising an already poor results forecast downward. Dig back to early October and you'll find items regarding layoffs at forest products producer Louisiana-Pacific and hardware-maker Stanley Works. Semantics aside, I think most of us believe we're in a full-blown recession and probably have been for months.

Yet -- and here we come full circle -- I remain somewhat amazed at how resilient the industry, as well as the country at large, remains. There is an overall feeling, galvanized perhaps by the events of Sept. 11, that we will grit our teeth, cinch our belts and forge forward.