FOCUS: Political cloud shrouds over succession to outgoing chief

Asian Economic News, March 7, 2005

HONG KONG, March 4 Kyodo

Political cloud shrouds over Hong Kong as the reported departure of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa midway through his second five-year term has opened up uncertainties that Beijing may thumb local concerns on the issue of succession.

Hong Kong has been grappling with issues arising from a possible by-election following reports this week that Tung tendered his resignation to Beijing for health reasons. If confirmed, Tung will step down more than two years before his current five-year term expires in July 2007.

A new chief must be elected within six months, according to the Basic Law, the territory's mini-constitution. In the meantime, Chief Secretary for Administration Donald Tsang, the No. 2 man, will take over the office.

It is unclear in the Basic Law whether the newly elected chief should serve the remainder of Tung's term or a fresh five-year term. The Basic Law has no provision for a by-election but states that in case of a vacancy, a new chief executive shall be elected.

Legally speaking, a five-year term is in line with the spirit of the article, but Beijing is leaning to a remainder term for political reasons.

The final call rests with the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the highest body in the Chinese legislature. The committee has twice delivered an interpretation of the Basic Law since the former British colony returned to Chinese political sovereignty in 1997, sparking concerns of erosion of Hong Kong's autonomy.

''There must be a reinterpretation by the highest body of the central government since there is gray area in the matter,'' said Ng Hong-man, one of Hong Kong's delegates to the NPC and a member of the Basic Law Committee.

He spoke to reporters in Beijing ahead of the start of the NPC'S annual session on Saturday.

Hong Kong's pro-democracy politicians, who are adamant that the articles in the Basic Law have specified a five-year term, have vowed to resist a reinterpretation of the Basic Law.

''We are opposed to a reinterpretation of the Basic Law at Beijing's whim. The articles are very clear,'' Lee Wing-tat, chairman of the Democratic Party, told a press conference.

The pro-democracy camp has been pushing for greater election reforms for the next term of the chief executive in 2007. A five-year term would mean their wish will be further delayed to 2010.

Martin Lee, founder of the Democratic Party, said, ''Democratization will be delayed but we should follow the law.''

Anthony Cheung, a political scientist with City University, said a reinterpretation of the Basic Law would be detrimental for China as viewed by the international community.

''There is no ground (for a reinterpretation) although the Basic Law does not spell it out clearly about a by-election,'' he said.

Beijing prefers a remainder term because it would give it ample time to assess whether Tsang, one of its favorites for the next term, lives up to expectations before he can serve a whole term, critics observe.

Tsang, 60, a veteran civil servant, has emerged as a frontrunner for the next term of the city's chief, with Financial Secretary Henry Tang and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li also in the running.

Beijing can easily exert influence on the choice of the candidates because the chief executive is elected by an 800-strong election committee largely composed of conservative businessmen and politicians.

Other political parties in Hong Kong, the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong and pro-business Liberal Party, also side with Beijing as they need more time to groom their candidates.

Last year, by a reinterpretation of the Basic Law, Beijing flatly ruled out universal suffrage for the city's chief executive in 2007 and the Legislative Council in 2008.

In 1999, the precedent for such reinterpretation was set when the Hong Kong government sought Beijing's help to stem a flood of mainland children from entering the territory en masse.

The rumored resignation of Tung, who has widely been criticized as incompetent and indecisive, came as a shock to the city when news first broke on Tuesday.

No official announcement has been made regarding the speculation so far.

On Monday, Tung was elected a member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in Beijing.

The move was believed to be an attempt to sideline Tung and pave the way for his early resignation as Hong Kong's chief.

Tung is expected to be elected as vice chairman of the conference's Standing Committee on March 12 -- traditionally an appointment to honor retired officials who are no longer in power.

Handpicked by Beijing under former Chinese President Jiang Zemin's rule, Tung, 69, the eldest son of shipping magnet C.Y. Tung, had little political experience before he took up the job.

Tung reportedly requested to step down on a number of occasions, including after a massive protest by thousands of people demanding universal suffrage last year, but was rejected by Beijing.