H.K. professor says bird flu pandemic unlikely

HONG KONG, Jan. 3 Kyodo

A bird flu pandemic is unlikely because the H5N1 virus has yet to mutate into highly pathogenic form, a Hong Kong university professor said Tuesday.

''There is no evidence that the H5N1 virus has mutated to be capable of causing a pandemic because it is not effective in transmitting from human to human,'' Kenneth Tsang, a professor in the University of Hong Kong's Department of Medicine, told a press conference.

''Comparing with human flu virus A(H3N2), the H5N1 virus is quite negligible,'' Tsang said before attending a seminar on bird flu for healthcare workers. ''About 50,000 people died from A(H3N2) infection in the U.S. last year. The bird flu virus is not that virulent indeed.''

World Health Organization figures show that 142 people in five Asian countries - Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam - have been infected with H5N1-strain bird flu since late 2003 and 74 of them have died.

Hong Kong reported 18 cases of humans infected with bird flu in H5N1 bird flu in 1997, including six deaths, while mainland China reported seven human cases in 2005, including three deaths.

Tsang said that in the ''extremely unlikely'' worst-case scenario, where 20 percent of the population could be infected and 80 percent of them could die, no government or any country could manage the disaster.

Detailed preparation for such a scenario is also impossible due to limited resources, so the best plan is to strengthen infection control and personal hygiene, he said.

The world supply of antiviral drug Tamiflu, which is the most sought after medicine for bird flu, is strained. Swiss pharmaceutical maker Roche has said it can produce only 300 million treatments of Tamiflu worldwide by 2006.

''What is worrying though, is that some scientists suggested using Tamiflu as the first line of flu treatment, which is not right because the drug is not quite useful,'' Tsang said.

He said doctors in Vietnam and Thailand who treated bird flu patients have told him that Tamiflu does not make much difference compared with other treatments.

As high as 20 percent of people using Tamiflu might develop flu-like symptoms as a side-effect of the drug, causing panic among people, he warned.

Rather than just hoarding Tamiflu, Tsang advocated the use of Relenza, another antiviral drug deemed useful against bird flu infection on its own or in combination with other drugs like Tamiflu.

But Tamiflu remains the more popular choice worldwide because its capsule form is easier to swallow than the powder-form Relenza, which needs to be inhaled.

''Even if a pandemic occurs, it will not happen in Hong Kong first, we don't have many chicken farms and we have neighboring countries to alert us. We must prepare, but not panic,'' Tsang said.

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