World Bank warns bird flu pandemic could cost $2 tril

Asian Economic News, Sept 18, 2006

SINGAPORE, Sept. 17 Kyodo

The World Bank warned Sunday the outbreak of a severe avian influenza pandemic could cost the world economy up to $2 trillion.

''We estimate this could cost, in fact, certainly over $1 trillion and perhaps as high as $2 trillion, in the worst case scenario, so I think the threat, the economic threat, remains well real and remains substantial,'' said Jim Adams, vice president for East Asia and the Pacific and head of the bank's avian flu task force.

A severe pandemic could now cut more than 3 percent of the global economy due to its impact on trade and economic activity, he said at a press conference during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Singapore.

''Recent analytic works based on the models we have developed on the global economy have, in fact, if anything, increased the potential costs,'' he said.

Asia has already been hardest hit, with 127 out the 144 human deaths arising from bird flu since 2003 occurring in East Asian countries, other officials of the bank said.

The international community has pledged to donate $2 billion to developing countries, and of this, $1.2 billion has been committed so far.

The World Bank has also provided advice and financing totaling

$150 million to projects to tackle bird flu in Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, Laos, Moldavia, Nigeria, Tajikistan, Turkey and Vietnam.

Last week, a team from the World Bank visited Indonesia to work with the government on finalizing a $15 million grant for that country to deal with bird flu.