FOCUS: Cambodian election attracts punters, prognosticators

0 Comments | Asian Political News, July 28, 2003

PHNOM PENH, July 25 Kyodo

With millions of Cambodians heading to the polls Sunday, the bets are on.

In coffee shops, restaurants, offices and clubs around the country, and especially in the capital Phnom Penh, political and non-political Cambodians alike are increasingly putting their money where their mouths are.

Although not listed on the national tote boards unlike local and international sporting events, bets on which party and which candidates will win Sunday are proliferating.

The unofficial odds, like the official polls, make Prime Minister Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP) the solid favorite, followed by Prince Norodom Ranariddh's FUNCINPEC and the eponymous Sam Rainsy Party.

But the 19 other parties campaigning for victory Sunday are definite also-rans, both in the punters' minds and in the polls, even before a single vote has been cast.

Only the bravest of bettors will venture a riel on any but the top three, and even at the top the CPP clearly outruns its rivals.

The local coffee shop odds put the CPP at 2-1, at the very least, to take top place, with FUNCINPEC and the Sam Rainsy Party both on even money to come second.

After those three, however, few but the most gifted mathematicians can accurately calculate the astronomical odds on the remaining 19 parties.

But even with a huge lead in the bettors' psyches and in the polls, Hun Sen appears to be taking few chances.

Although no one in his entourage will officially confirm the premier's belief in fortune-tellers and other methods of prognostication, the signs apparently point to Hun Sen being little different than many of countrymen and women when it comes to seeking a cosmic edge.

Chinese newspapers in Cambodia received notice Tuesday that they should change the long-standing Chinese characters for Hun Sen, which are pronounced ''Hong Sen,'' to two characters that read as ''Yun Sheng'' and mean ''flies loudly up to the sky.''

Officials say the changes are to ''correct'' past ''misspellings.'' But reporters are skeptical, believing the notice more likely reflects the premier's belief in a Taiwanese fortune-teller's reported prediction that such a change would ensure victory for the CPP Sunday and bring five more years as prime minister to ''Yun Sheng.''

FUNCINPEC leader Prince Ranariddh is less circumspect on the cosmic.

He told Kyodo News, ''I believe in Buddha, Dharma and the monks. I have prayed at the stupas of the former kings and the late King Norodom inside the Royal Palace'' for help in winning the poll.

But Sam Rainsy, the feisty opposition leader of the Sam Rainsy Party who was raised in France, takes a more down-to-earth view.

''I don't believe at all in fortune-tellers and I never go to fortune-tellers. I just believe in the power of the human being,'' he told Kyodo.

His views make him somewhat ''abnormal'' in the eyes of the many Cambodians who keep more than 50 fortune-tellers busy night and day at two spots in central Phnom Penh.

Whether the prognosticators' predictions help or hinder the politicians will be known early next week.

And at the same time, the reckoning will come for the hundreds of thousands of punters who have taken their money off the soccer field in past weeks and put it into the political field.