GSDF to defend islands in China-Taiwan conflict

Asian Political News, May 17, 2004

TOKYO, May 14 Kyodo

The Defense Agency has drawn up a plan to deploy 7,200 ground troops to Japan's southernmost islands in the event of a military conflict between China and Taiwan to prevent China from invading them, confidential documents from the agency obtained by Kyodo News showed Thursday.

It is the first time that internal agency documents have been found to assume that China might attack Japanese territory.

The agency's Ground Staff Office believes it is possible China would invade the remote islands in Okinawa Prefecture to block joint support operations for Taiwan by Japan and the United States, according to the documents.

Military experts believe the office is trying to emphasize the importance of the Ground Self-Defense Force by identifying the ''new threat'' of a possible Chinese invasion, as the agency will soon compile the next defense plan guideline and is likely to restructure the Self-Defense Forces.

The experts, however, criticize the scenario as unrealistic and a ''made-up threat,'' since it is unlikely China would choose the highly risky option of engaging in war on two fronts, namely against Taiwan and against Japan and the United States.

Sources familiar with the documents said they were compiled by the Ground Staff Office in November as part of operations to revise the defense guidelines.

Amid budget cuts on tanks and artillery to make way for an expensive missile defense system and the end of the Cold War, the GSDF is trying to shift its focus from the north to the west given the current security tensions over the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan straits.

''It is unrealistic and difficult to imagine that the Chinese army would really invade the Japanese islands, although it is possible Japan would be affected by a conflict between Taiwan and China,'' said Tetsuo Maeda, a national security professor at Tokyo International University.

''It is better to see this as the GSDF trying to stress its new role under new threats,'' Maeda said.

In the documents, the countries concerned were not named. Instead, China was referred to as X and Taiwan as D.

The three southern islands targeted for invasion under the assumption are Miyako Island, Ishigaki Island and Yonaguni Island, according to the documents.

In particular, the documents mentioned that Miyako and nearby islands are likely to be targeted because of an Air Self-Defense Force radar base and two airports located in the area.

China may invade Yonaguni Island, the westernmost part of Japan and 100 kilometers from Taiwan, as a stepping stone to attack Taiwan, the office assumes.

It also assumes that China would attack the islands by sea and air, with marine forces landing from assault ships as well as airborne units and special forces attacking ASDF bases and airports with rocket-propelled grenade and other weapons, according to the documents.

The office believes that China will deploy 1,400 troops to attack Miyako and Yonaguni islands. If Ishigaki Island is included, the number would total 5,200, the documents say.

In order to fend off such an attack, 7,200 GSDF troops will be deployed to guard the airports, ports and bases on the three islands prior to the invasion. If invaded, 2,000 more troops from the 1st Airborne Brigade based in Narashino, Chiba Prefecture, would be dispatched, the documents said.