ANALYSIS: U.S. hopes 4th-year adjustments yield progress in Iraq war

WASHINGTON, March 19 Kyodo

The United States' inability to halt Iraq's continued descent into chaos during the fourth year of the war led to changes in U.S. strategy and leadership that the White House and experts hope produce positive results in the next year.

U.S. President George W. Bush marked the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq on Monday by pointing to ''hopeful signs'' that his new strategy for the war is making progress.

''Those on the ground are seeing hopeful signs,'' Bush said in a televised speech, citing the uncovering of ''large caches of weapons'' and the destruction of ''two major car bomb factories.''

Bush also warned, ''The new strategy will need more time to take effect. And there will be good days and there will be bad days ahead as the security plan unfolds.''

But year four of the war ended much the same way it began, with the Bush administration denying that Iraq is in a state of civil war.

''We all recognize that there is sectarian violence,'' but Iraqis have ''decided not to go to civil war,'' Bush said in March 2006.

On March 15 this year, responding to questions concerning the January 2007 National Intelligence Estimate's conclusion that there are ''elements of civil war'' in Iraq, White House spokesman Tony Snow said, ''We're not going to use that term.''

''Some elements of the situation in Iraq are properly descriptive of a 'civil war,' including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities and mobilization, the changing character of the violence, and population displacements,'' said the Pentagon's quarterly report to the U.S. Congress released last week.

''I call it a 'slow motion' civil war because it hasn't really reached full-fledged status,'' said James Phillips, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

But Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, said Iraq is ''unquestionably'' in a state of civil war.

The only real change between the third year and the fourth year of the war in Iraq is that ''the civil war is here,'' Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Michael O'Hanlon said.

''It's ethnic violence with a calculation and with some instigation, more than just random spasms of killing, and so it's the intent of the leaders as well as the scale of the violence'' that makes it a civil war, O'Hanlon said.

But both Diamond and O'Hanlon agreed that the new strategy was already showing some signs of hope.

In January, the Bush administration released a new strategy for prosecuting the war, calling for a surge of over 21,000 troops in order to quell the violence in Baghdad and hunt insurgents and terrorist elements in Iraq's Al-Anbar province.

The surge has ''already significantly reduced the volume'' of violence, Diamond said.

''Already, for example, the Mahdi Army is choosing to lie low and not to fight the United States and not to fight the Iraqi security forces,'' O'Hanlon said, referring to the Shiite militia headed by Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

The deteriorating security situation in Iraq throughout 2006 was at least partially responsible for the Democratic takeover of the U.S. Congress in last November's election.

After the Republicans lost their majority, then-U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld resigned and was replaced by Robert Gates.

In addition to Gates, new military leaders will be in charge of implementing the new strategy, with Gen. David Petraeus relieving Gen. George Casey as the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq and Adm. William Fallon taking over for Gen. John Abizaid as Central Command chief.

Nobody knows, however, if the military and personnel changes will have a positive effect during the next year.

Diamond estimated the chances of succeeding are ''no more than moderate'' and ''less than 50 percent,'' adding that the current level of military involvement is not sustainable.

''Because of the uncertainties and because of the dangers of pushing the force too much, we really should be evaluating the surge very carefully by this summer and if it's not showing major, major progress we should be prepared to go to a much different strategy and to end the surge,'' O'Hanlon said.

The strategy, titled ''The New Way Forward in Iraq,'' also prescribes political, economic and diplomatic steps to be taken by the U.S. and Iraqi governments.

Bush said the Iraqi government was ''beginning to meet the benchmarks they have laid out for political reconciliation.''

But thus far, the Iraqi government has been a disappointment and remains ''riddled with corruption and dissension,'' Diamond said.

''They haven't made a whole lot of progress, although the oil law is promising and I hope that that'll be a beginning of a turning point, but obviously you have to be skeptical at this point,'' O'Hanlon said.

Bush again warned that the consequences of a rapid withdrawal of U.S. soldiers would be disastrous.

''If American forces were to step back from Baghdad before it is more secure, a contagion of violence could spill out across the entire country,'' he said. ''In time, this violence could engulf the region.''