Storage: 53 Removable Data Storage Manufacturers: Different Recording Technologies, Different Product Forms, But Aiming At Many of the Same Target Markets

Edge: Work-Group Computing Report, August 10, 1998

1998 DISK/TREND REPORT

REMOVABLE DATA STORAGE

Worldwide

Forecast

unit shipments     1997

in thousands     Shipments    1998     1999      2000       2001

Flash cards        4,497.5   7,887.8  11,538.4  15,632.2  19,622.5

PC Card

rigid disk drives    203.1     184.5     230.0     275.0     310.0

Rigid disk

cartridge drives   1,438.7   2,761.0   4,120.0   5,260.0   6,210.0

Small optical

disk drives        1,411.0   1,669.0   1,870.0   1,938.0   1,915.0

High capacity

flexible disk

drives            8,055.8  14,755.0  20,920.0  26,950.0  33,410.0

Low capacity

flexible disk

drives           98,392.0 100,517.0 102,020.0 102,430.0 102,530.0

TOTAL SHIPMENTS  113,998.1 127,774.3 140,698.4 152,485.2 163,997.5

                      17.7%     12.1%     10.1%      8.4%      7.5%

Source: 1998 DISK/TREND Report

The computer industry's appetite for removable data storage has stimulated the development of a diverse mixture of products, derived from several recording technologies, using a variety of noncompatible formats. Removable data storage products continue to evolve into new types of products and storage capacities, with expansion into additional markets, such as digital cameras and telecommunication systems.

The new DISK/TREND Report on removable data storage defines the market size for these products and details the market positioning of 53 manufacturers of magnetic rigid disk cartridge drives, PC Card rigid disk drives, floppy disk drives, small optical disk drives, and cards using flash memory technology. 1998's worldwide sales of removable data storage products are estimated at $3.9 billion, growing to more than $5 billion in 2001.

The sales outlook for the six removable data storage product groups covered in the report is a mixed bag. Flash memory cards are expected to benefit as markets such as digital cameras expand, and the increasing storage capacity of magnetic disk cartridge drives will build sales in several specialized markets. High capacity floppy disk drives are destined to take over much of the growth that standard low capacity floppy drives have enjoyed in previous years.

Here are other highlights from the 1998 DISK/TREND Report on removable data storage: * Shipments of high capacity floppy drives are continuing to grow, but the marketplace is becoming crowded with proposed "standards". The only high capacity floppy drives currently available are the Iomega 100 megabyte Zip and the 120 megabyte LS-120 SuperDisk, backed by several companies. Other announced contenders include Sony's 200 megabyte HiFD, Caleb Technology's 144 megabyte UHD144 and the Swan Instruments/Mitsumi Electric 130 megabyte UHC. 1997 high capacity floppy drive shipments topped 8 million drives and the DISK/TREND projection for 2001 is 33.4 million drives. * The standard 3.5 inch 1.44 megabyte standard low capacity floppy drive is expected to survive for many years, although most of the overall growth for floppy drives is being diverted to high capacity floppy drives. The report notes that the 8 inch floppy drive continues to be manufactured in small quantities in 1998, after 25 years of production. 3.5 inch low capacity floppy drives are still considered adequate for storing and interchanging word processing and similar computer projects, and their very low price makes them hard for personal computer manufacturers to abandon. Annual shipments of low capacity floppy drives now top 100 million drives, but only minimal growth is expected during the next few years. * Flash card shipments were 4.5 million units in 1997, with 19.6 million projected for 2001. Although flash cards in the standardized PC Card format held the shipment leadership in recent years, cards using the several miniaturized card formats were shipped in larger quantities in 1997, and are projected to take 77.1% of the 2001 shipments. The character of the flash card market is being rapidly changed by the digital camera, generating major growth for small form factor flash cards, with a future assist expected from personal telecommunications equipment and hand held computing devices. * The combination of higher capacities, competitive prices and intense marketing campaigns has boosted sales of magnetic rigid disk cartridge drives to new levels, topping 1.4 million drives in 1997. These drives are finding expanded markets in video editing, multimedia mastering, and engineering workstations, in addition to high-end consumer applications. The available storage capacities are expected to grow, and so will the product group's shipments, forecasted for a 2001 total of 6.2 million drives. * The forecast for PC Card drives drops to a lower level every year, due to the fact that targeted markets, such as personal digital assistants, personal communicators and subnotebook computers, turned out to be much smaller than expected. The Scottish drive manufacturer Calluna is the only surviving producer of PC Card drives, employing a strategy of increasing drive storage capacities as rapidly as practical. 2001 shipments are forecasted at 310,000 drives. * Competitive removable data storage products are expected to hold down the market opportunity for small optical disk drives, with a shipment peak in 2000 estimated at 1.9 million 3.5 inch drives. Alternative removable data storage products, offering competitive capacities at even more competitive prices, will be even more effective competitors during the next three years, limiting the sales opportunity for small optical disk drives.