'System-on-a-Chip: A Brave New World' - Technology Information

Edge: Work-Group Computing Report, Oct 11, 1999

The emerging System-on-a-Chip (SoC) market holds great promise for the future of the Semiconductor Industry and ASIC markets in particular.

According to "System-on-a-Chip: A Brave New World," a study just published by Semico Research Corp., revenue for the SoC market will grow from $5.6 billion in 1999 to $15.7 billion in 2003. A SoC is a complex semiconductor chip aimed at a system-level solution.

All of the elements of a system are combined on a single chip. A SoC might include a high-performance CPU core, a large block of memory, one or more mixed-signal or analog blocks, Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) blocks, high performance on-chip bus structures, other functional blocks, and embedded APIs or other software.

By combining functions once considered impossible to integrate on a single monolithic die, SoC chips may create whole new markets, turning ideas into manufacturable and marketable realities. Consider the recently introduced network processors from IBM, integrated cable modem chips from Motorola and Broadcom, and integrated set-top box receivers from Motorola.

According to "System-on-a-Chip: A Brave New World," the worldwide average NRE (Non-recurring Engineering) charge for traditional ASIC designs is approaching $122,000 today, but the NRE charge for a SoC design using the newest 0.14um technology can easily be nearly $1 million. Mask costs are expected to double for each new process generation.

Since volumes would have to be high enough to justify these additional costs, the number of designs suitable for a SoC solution might seem to be limited. But, Semico Research Corp. believes that SoC design starts will increase faster than conventional ASIC design starts. From 1999 through 2003 the CAGR for ASIC design starts worldwide is expected to be 7.8 percent.

During the same time period the CAGR for SoC design starts is expected to be 38 percent. One factor to be considered is that approximately 25 percent of all ASIC design starts fail to reach production due to complexity, product cancellation, etc.

These factors are more critical for SoC designs since they require a very high degree of systems knowledge and the probability of getting the design right the first time is reduced. The study, "System-on-a-Chip: A Brave New World," is available for immediate shipment. The list price is $3,500. Any company manufacturing or using ASICs will find the information in this study essential.

Semico Research Corp. is a leader in providing semiconductor market analysis, research and custom consulting. Its headquarters are in Phoenix, with offices in northern California and Boston as well as in Europe and in Japan. Other products and services are available at the Semico Research Corp. Web site, www.semico.com.