Obuchi set to breeze through 3-way LDP race

Japan Policy & Politics, July 26, 1999

TOKYO, July 22 Kyodo

Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, whose popularity is rising, looks set to handily win reelection as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a leadership race scheduled for September. The premier is expected to be pitted against former LDP Secretary General Koichi Kato and former LDP policy chief Taku Yamasaki, in a three-way contest that will also determine the country's prime minister. Although the three will formally declare their candidacies only in mid-August, Obuchi, 62, is all but certain to be reelected since he has the support of two-thirds of the LDP's 371 lawmakers. But the two challengers hope that through their election campaigns they will leave their mark as possible future candidates to take the helm of government. Kato, considered among the most likely to succeed Obuchi, plans to push his policy goals during the election campaign and stress his image as a different type of leader from Obuchi. "Prime Minister Obuchi is a coordinator of people's views. That's the style of Japan's traditional political leadership and it has worked well," said the 60-year-old former diplomat on a television program Sunday. "But would that be enough? I don't think we can see how things will go in the future," he said. Kato, however, has some coordinating of his own to do in his 71-member faction, some of whose members are against his vying for the leadership. The skeptics, including heavyweights such as LDP policy chief Yukihiko Ikeda, fear that his candidacy would damage their relations with Obuchi's faction, which could distance the group from the center of power. Some in the LDP are also worried that a crushing defeat in the leadership race could damage Kato's chances of getting the top job in the future, says Masayuki Fukuoka, professor at Hakuoh University. "Mr. Kato wants to stress his image as the successor to Mr. Obuchi, both inside and outside Japan," Fukuoka said. "But there are worries that he may suffer a major defeat, which would be bad for his future." Yamasaki, 62, envisions a goal farther in the future. He hopes that running in the party poll would advance his plan to head the LDP after Obuchi's successor. He launched a stumping tour for the LDP leadership race last week that will take him to about 20 areas across Japan. "I am about to face the (LDP) leadership election by presenting my policies," Yamasaki said Wednesday in a meeting in Tokyo, which was part of the tour. "I am determined to take part in the leadership race. I hope the head of the LDP will be chosen on the basis of his policies," he said. Yamasaki, whose policy goals include the revision of the Constitution to allow Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense, also has hurdles to clear within his own 31-member faction. Yamasaki has to come up with at least 30 LDP legislators to support him in order to run in the election. But former International Trade and Industry Minister Sadanori Yamanaka, a senior member of Yamasaki's faction, has expressed his intention to support Obuchi for the leadership. Some other senior members are unenthusiastic about Yamasaki's joining the race as they fear it would ruin his chances in the future, according to faction sources. Reelection would give Obuchi a two-year term in office. He is currently serving out the remainder of his predecessor Ryutaro Hashimoto's term, which expires Sept. 30. Obuchi's supporters initially floated the idea of moving up the election and having the premier run uncontested. But after Kato and Yamasaki stuck to their decisions to run, the prime minister's supporters changed their plans out of concern that a schedule change would be seen as underhanded. They hope Obuchi will win the party poll by a wide margin, adding momentum to his plans to launch a new coalition government of the LDP, its current coalition partner Liberal Party and the No. 2 opposition New Komeito party. The leadership race is expected to be followed by a cabinet reshuffle giving the New Komeito seats in the cabinet to establish the expanded coalition government.