42% of LDP lawmakers back Koizumi's reelection, more undecided

Japan Policy & Politics, July 22, 2003

TOKYO, July 20 Kyodo

Forty-two percent of lawmakers with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said they back the reelection of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in September's LDP presidential election, according to a Kyodo News survey released Sunday.

Although those supporting the premier overwhelmed the 9% of the 105 respondents who said they do not back Koizumi's reelection, the biggest percentage of 46% said they were still undecided -- a sign that the outcome of the election will be difficult to predict.

Koizumi appears to be getting a good amount of support for his reelection mainly because it is not yet clear who will challenge him, and many of the Diet members who did not respond to the survey are also believed to be undecided.

Kyodo News conducted the survey on the 355 LDP lawmakers in both houses of parliament from Monday to Saturday, and nearly 30% of them responded.

In a multiple-choice question on what areas they placed importance on when selecting which candidate to vote for, a whopping 90% of the respondents opted for ''policies,'' followed by ''popularity among the public'' at a distant 11%.

There were factional tendencies in the responses on whether the lawmakers backed Koizumi's reelection, with all respondents in the group led by former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori -- and to which Koizumi used to belong -- throwing in their support.

The ones denying support came only from the three factions critical of the premier's administration, including the one led by former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto. Among respondents in these groups, only one expressed support while a large majority was undecided.

Even though legislators in these three factions are apparently dissatisfied with Koizumi, they appear to be at a loss in terms of finding a suitable alternative to challenge the incumbent leader.

Only four respondents said they have decided on someone who can replace Koizumi. Of them, three named the party's former policy chief Shizuka Kamei and the fourth refused to disclose who he had in mind.

With Koizumi's term as party president expiring at the end of September, the next election is scheduled to take place during that month with 300 votes allocated to regular party members and supporters of the party and one vote to each of the 355 Diet members.

Koizumi was first chosen as LDP president in April 2001 and also took the premier's post because the LDP-led coalition has a majority in the House of Representatives, which has the final say in selecting the premier.

But his power base in the party remains weak largely because the reform-minded prime minister has refused to follow many of the LDP's traditional policy-making practices.