LEAD: Opposition candidate leading Bangkok election

Japan Policy & Politics, August 30, 2004

BANGKOK, Aug. 29 Kyodo

(EDS: UPDATING)

An opposition Democratic Party candidate is likely to win the Bangkok gubernatorial election Sunday by a slim margin, according to unofficial polling results.

One poll jointly conducted by the Nation multimedia firm and Thammasat University showed Apirak Kosayodhin receiving 27.27 percent of support, ahead of Pavena Hongsakula, a social activist endorsed by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, with 24.83 percent. The poll was taken among 48,662 voters.

Another poll jointly conducted by the Bangkok Post and a teachers' college showed Apirak winning with 35.03 percent support while Pavena received 25.53 percent. The poll covered some 7,000 voters.

Vote counting started Sunday evening at 50 district offices in Bangkok. The Election Commission of Thailand is expected to announce a preliminary result around midnight while the commission's endorsement of a final result is expected to come as early as Monday morning.

More than 4.17 million citizens were eligible to vote. Local media estimated that the turnout at around 60 percent.

Thaksin's party neither fielded a candidate nor openly backed one. But the party appears to be supporting Pavena, a former lawmaker whose party merged with Thaksin's party.

Sukhum Nualsakul, a veteran political analyst, said that since the ruling party did not field any candidates in the election, it is difficult to say whether the results will provide a hint about next year's general elections.

But if Apirak wins, it would be a big boost for the opposition party as many ruling party lawmakers have already defected to it, said Sukhum.

''It would provide upbeat support for the Democrat Party or those supporters as some may feel that the Democrat Party is now weakening,'' he said.

The Sunday poll winner will replace Samak Sundaravej.