Japanese editorial excerpts -2-

Japan Policy & Politics, March 1, 2004

TOKYO, Feb. 25 Kyodo

Selected editorial excerpts from the Japanese press:

EMPTY DEMOCRACY IN IRAN (The Japan Times, an English-language daily)

To no one's surprise, conservatives claimed an overwhelming victory in parliamentary elections held in Iran last week. The results were predictable since many of the country's reform-oriented candidates were not allowed to run. The low turnout is proof that the outcome does not reflect the will of the Iranian people. The only question now is how they will channel their frustrations: continued apathy or stepped-up confrontation with the hardliners who are determined to keep their grip on the country.

The results of this election were preordained when the Governing Council...disqualified thousands of liberal candidates, among them more than 80 current members of the Parliament. Widespread criticism of that move prompted the Council to restore about one-third of the disqualified candidates, but 2,400 were still not permitted to run.

Reformers were not satisfied, and more than 120 liberal members of the Parliament offered resignations. But that, and the prospect of international criticism, did not dissuade the hardliners. The elections went ahead as scheduled.

As anticipated, conservatives swept the vote. According to the most recent results, conservatives have taken more than 149 seats in the 290-seat Parliament, giving them an absolute majority and wresting control from the reformers. Reformers and independents look set to take about 65 seats. In districts where no one got more than 25% of the vote, a second round of balloting will be held later.

Reformers have claimed a moral victory after calling for a boycott. That may have had an impact on turnout: A little more than 50% of voters cast ballots, a considerable drop from the 67% that turned out in the last round of elections, nearly four years ago. Turnout in Tehran, the capital and largest city, was a little more than one-third.

Undaunted, the conservatives saw the results as a victory for the nation and as a refusal to be intimidated by Western nations bent on subverting the Islamic revolution. More accurately, reformers deemed the vote a ''national fiasco.''

The apathy in Iran is a product not only of disgust with the blatant rigging of the elections, but of exhaustion with the reformers. Since taking power in 1997, President Mohammad Khatami has been unable to break the conservatives' grip on power, even though he and his allies have commanded a majority in the Parliament. Reforms have languished, bottled up by the Governing Council. At every confrontation, the president has backed down. He has had good reasons: The hardliners control the security ministries and would welcome a confrontation that they would invariably win. Khatami is unwilling to see blood shed by his supporters. Despite his concerns, the image he has projected is one of weakness, and he has alienated his most fervent allies.

With these results in, the hardliners have claimed control of all the levers of power and can begin to throttle the reformers through supposedly democratic instruments. Reformers have lost a vital platform that allowed them to reach the Iranian people as well as international public opinion. President Khatami is now more isolated than ever.

Iran is likely to be isolated as well. There has been near universal condemnation of the election results, but that has only strengthened knee-jerk nationalists who view any foreign criticism as an opportunity to build support for their positions. An increasingly conservative Parliament is likely to push for more confrontation with critics and there are several issues upon which they can oblige.

One troubling topic is Iran's nuclear energy program. As additional information about that clandestine nuclear effort is revealed, it is becoming clear that Tehran is still cheating on the International Atomic Energy Agency. The announcement that Iran is willing to sell nuclear fuel on the international market is an open invitation to nuclear proliferators and is clearly designed to thwart the intent of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Hardline Shiite Muslims in Iran could push co-religionists in Iraq to become more obstructionist in an effort to dominate the post-Hussein government. Those groups have been quietly supportive of the U.S.-led occupation, but they could lose patience with the nation-building process and decide to take matters into their own hands. Support from Iran would be essential to that effort. At a minimum, increasing violence would tie down the U.S. and prevent Washington -- and the supporters of secular, democratic government in the region -- from winning an important victory. As the recent elections confirm, Iran's conservatives use democracy as a fig leaf -- and cast it away when necessary. As it happened last week.

(Feb. 25)