LEAD: SCOPE: After 4 years, Koizumi feared turning into lame duck

Japan Policy & Politics, May 2, 2005

TOKYO, April 26 Kyodo

(EDS: ADDING LATEST SURVEY RESULTS ON CABINET APPROVAL RATE)

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is expected to face difficulty ahead amid a stalemate in Japan's key diplomacy and what would be perceived as an exhausted reform drive as he marked the fourth anniversary of taking office Tuesday.

Koizumi may be trying to make history with diplomatic achievements such as normalizing ties with North Korea or winning back Russian-held islands, but talks with these countries have stalled and relations with China and South Korea have turned for the worse recently.

Uncertainty lingers also over Japan's bid to gain a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council possibly to be decided this year, and his pro-Washington line has indicated little effect in calming a beef trade row with the United States.

In a press conference Tuesday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda reeled off those foreign policy issues when asked about his view on the most important challenges for the administration from now on.

''Thinking from the current point of view, Japan's presence in the international arena and bilateral and multilateral relations should be more solid including on the issues of North Korea, China and South Korea, or Iraq, our international contributions and Japan-U.S. ties,'' the top government spokesman said.

''Also, Japan will make efforts to hold an important position in reforming the U.N. Security Council,'' he said, adding that relations with Russia and economic partnerships with other countries are also among the issues to be dealt with.

One factor that could cripple Koizumi in the remaining period of this year is his pledge to visit the war-related Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo once a year, political commentator Kichiya Kobayashi said.

''If he decides not to visit, his attitude to politics will be questioned, while a visit will draw fire not only from China but also from South Korea,'' he said.

Many members of Koizumi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party -- from veterans to the up-and-coming -- may question him as they say stopping the visit because of pressure from Beijing makes no sense.

On the domestic front, Koizumi's major policy goal to privatize Japan's postal system might be the last remaining thing he is enthusiastic about, pundits say.

''A sentiment that he is no longer necessary will likely spread rapidly even if he accomplishes his major policy goal of privatizing the postal system,'' Kobayashi said. ''A lame duck hardly keeps up for long.''

It may be difficult for Koizumi to serve, as he plans, until September next year when his term as LDP president expires, Kobayashi said.

A failure to pass bills to privatize Japan Post in the ongoing Diet session through June 19, meanwhile, may corner Koizumi either into resorting to a snap House of Representatives general election or resigning en masse with his Cabinet, pundits say.

Kakutaro Kitashiro, chairman of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives and IBM Japan Ltd., gave a score of 65 out of 100 points to Koizumi's economic policies over the past four years.

''The mark was initially around 60 but rose to 70 with progress in the disposing of bad loans,'' he said. ''But it is 65 now as his postal privatization policy is backing down from the initial reform idea.''

Kitashiro acknowledged that Koizumi's slogan of ''no growth without structural reform'' has encouraged business managers to take the painstaking course of drastic restructuring and helped change the economic structure into a profit-oriented one.

But he believes the reforms remain insufficient, such as in the area of deregulation.

Regardless of such criticisms, Koizumi on Monday reiterated his resolve to pursue privatizing Japan Post and thanked the LDP and its ruling coalition partner, the New Komeito party, for having supported him.

''Thanks to the achievements over the four years, I could embark on postal privatization as the centerpiece of my reforms and it has now advanced to the stage of submitting bills,'' Koizumi told reporters at his office.

''I express my heartfelt thanks to all those who have extended their support to date,'' he said.

Koizumi on Sunday survived one of the few tests slated for this year, winning both of two House of Representatives by-elections to fill the vacancies left by members of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

Koichi Kato, a former LDP secretary general, said he expects the return of former LDP Vice President Taku Yamasaki as a parliamentarian in one of the elections will help bring the deadlocked diplomacy back on track.

''Prime Minister Koizumi's instinct-based diplomacy has fallen into an impasse,'' Kato, who used to form a circle with Koizumi and Yamasaki, said after the polls. ''Mr. Yamasaki's work is needed to help pull it out of such a state.''

Already the fifth longest-serving premier in Japan's post-World War II history, Koizumi, who took office April 26, 2001, will climb to fourth place if he stays in office until Aug. 18, and go up another notch by the end of his tenure.