Iraq, foreign policy fail to stir British voters

Japan Policy & Politics, May 2, 2005

LONDON, April 29 Kyodo

With a few days to go before British voters elect a new lower house and government on Thursday, there is little evidence that the controversial Iraq war or foreign affairs are going to play very heavily in their deliberations, according to surveys.

The Iraq war in 2003 has dominated the news agenda here in the last few days following the release of papers which showed the government's top legal adviser -- while approving the invasion -- did have some legal concerns about such a move. This has led to fresh rows about the extent to which Prime Minister Tony Blair told the truth about the legal position in the run-up to war.

But despite the media frenzy, it would seem voters are still more swayed by issues like taxation and immigration.

On foreign affairs, the main policy which splits the parties is Europe. But this issue has been deferred until next year as all three parties have agreed to hold referenda on whether Britain should join the EU constitutional treaty.

Since the start of the campaign, Blair's center-left Labour Party has been fearful that the decision to go to war, and allegations that the prime minister exaggerated evidence in the run-up to the invasion, could cost votes. It may still do.

But analysts believe that most voters have already made up their minds over the invasion and it is doubtful whether there will be much movement in the polls. Some feel, however, that this latest batch of negative headlines may make some would-be Labour voters -- already disillusioned with Blair in terms of trust and credibility -- stay at home in protest.

The vast majority of polls still indicate Labour's support is remaining relatively solid and Blair will be returned to office with a healthy, albeit reduced, parliamentary majority. A YouGov poll on Friday gives Labour 36 percent, Conservatives 32 percent and Liberal Democrats 24 percent.

Recent surveys suggest that, for most voters, Iraq and foreign affairs, are off their radar. A Guardian newspaper poll found that only 3 percent of voters regarded the Iraq war as the most important issue when deciding their votes, the same percentage for Europe.

Victor Bulmer-Thomas, director of foreign policy think tank Chatham House, told Kyodo News, ''For those who had grave doubts about the credibility of the prime minister, this (the recent row over legal advice) has confirmed it. For those who have decided they are going to vote Labour due to domestic reasons, I would be surprised if this stopped them from voting Labour.

''The big worry is that it may be sufficient to prevent quite a number of Labour voters from voting at all in order to express disappointment. A low turnout would probably mean a smaller majority for the prime minister.''

The opposition center-right Conservative Party has tried to capitalize on the government's discomfort. Its leader Michael Howard accused Blair of lying over the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction in the run-up to the invasion and criticized the postwar reconstruction.

The Conservative Party is, nevertheless, in a difficult position. It agreed to the invasion and Howard has said that despite what is known now about the absence of weapons of mass destruction, he would still have approved the invasion in order to remove Saddam Hussein. The Conservative party also agrees with Labour that British forces should remain in Iraq as long as they are needed by the new Iraqi government.

Only Britain's third party the center-left Liberal Democrats can expect to capitalize on antiwar votes. It opposed the invasion and wants British troops pulled out of Iraq by the end of this year.