British Airways Predicts Return to High Passenger Volume for Concorde

World Airline News, April 13, 2001

Manufacturers See Supersonic Replacement as Not Economically Viable

While operators of the Concorde say they expect to see a return to high passenger numbers for the next phase of the aircraft's service life, industry observers say the possibility of a replacement supersonic design is more remote than ever.

British Airways [BAB] and Air France say there is considerable demand for supersonic flight on its trans-Atlantic routes, and potentially on trans-Pacific routes, but manufacturers say there is still not enough demand to justify the development of a new supersonic aircraft. This means that there will almost certainly be no commercial supersonic travel when the Concorde is retired in less than a decade, and it is uncertain when or if a replacement will be built after that.

The Concorde has been out of service since a July 25, 2000 accident, when an Air France Concorde crashed into a hotel near Paris after developing a long plume of flame soon after takeoff. Experts surmise that the plume was caused by a shredded tire puncturing a fuel tank.

The aircraft's airworthiness certification was withdrawn by European authorities, and the Concorde is undergoing an extensive retrofit. If the aviation authorities approve this retrofit, British Airways hopes to resume trans-Atlantic service sometime in the summer, while Air France has indicated September is a likely date for its Concordes to return to service.

In spite of the age of the aircraft, and the dramatic nature of the accident, British Airways is optimistic regular Concorde passengers will return, said British Airways spokesman John Lampl. Data from travel agents and corporate travel clients indicates that demand has not subsided, Lampl said.

Before the accident, British Airways' seven operational Concordes usually flew with a 80-90 percent capacity utilization. Lampl said that frequent Concorde passengers have been forced to make changes to their established schedules by flying in slower aircraft.

To ensure that customers return, on April 10 British Airways gathered 50 of its best Concorde customers in New York, where the retrofit was explained by the chief Concorde pilot and engineer. A similar event was held in London on March 15.

Air France also believes that it is very important to get the Concorde frequent flyers back when the aircraft returns to operation, said the airline's spokesperson Diane Cornman.

Air France data shows that the aircraft's frequent flyers have switched to first-class travel in other, slower, aircraft while waiting for the airline's five Concordes to return.

Lampl said British Airways is spending US$40 million to refit its Concordes. This involves installing a new Kevlar lining in the fuel tank, and replacing wiring insulation.

One of the airline's Concordes is currently being retrofitted. This aircraft will be extensively tested to ensure that the alterations satisfy British and European safety regulators. Currently, tests of strengthened tire designs are being conducted in France.

When approval is granted, another British Airways Concorde will be retrofitted, and the two aircraft will begin daily service between London and New York. The other five aircraft will then be altered, and British Airways hopes to resume twice-daily flights by the end of this year.

In another effort to entice passengers back to the Concorde, British Airways has taken the opportunity to replace all the seats while the aircraft is grounded. Special lighting effects will be added to provide "a bit of theatre" when the aircraft breaks the sound barrier, Lampl said.

Despite the hefty price tag for the retrofit, "the decision was made that the eight to 10 years [of service life] left are worth the expense," Lampl said.

Replacement Unlikely

Airline industry observers agree that no aircraft manufacturer is currently considering building a supersonic aircraft, as it would not be economically justifiable.

Boeing [BA] examined the possibility for a supersonic commercial aircraft as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's High Speed Research (HSR) program. Beginning in 1990, the HSR program aimed to build a 300- seat, 5,000 nautical mile range aircraft with a cruising speed of Mach 2.4.

A market of more than 500 supersonic airliners was envisaged by 2015, worth more than $US200 billion. This effort, however, was effectively abandoned about 10 years later when technological barriers proved too daunting.

The fact that Boeing is devoting its development resources to the recently announced high-speed, high altitude 757 replacement - known as the Sonic Cruiser or 20XX - means that the manufacturer has pushed any plans for a supersonic commercial aircraft even further into the future, according to a U.S. industry analyst.

Boeing's market research indicated that a future market exists for an aircraft capable of flying a fraction under the speed of sound - but no higher. Discussing the Sonic Cruiser at a recent investor conference, Boeing's Commercial Airplanes Group CEO Alan Mulally admitted that with current technology, a supersonic aircraft is not economical.