Special Report On Global Market Outlook For Wide-Body Aircraft

World Airline News, Oct 12, 2001

We project 59 A330/-340 deliveries this year, and 60 each in 2002-04. Airbus had been planning 81 A330/-340 deliveries in 2002. It had been planned that the production rate for the A330/-340 would be increased over the next two years from the current five per month to eight.

The A-300/-310 Line - Plodding Alone at Less Than One Per Month

The A300-600 and A310 are assembled on the same production line. An announced firm order for 58 A300-600Fs with options for 50 more in January extends the announced firm order backlog for the A300/-310 line to 83. This order virtually assures that the A300/-310 line will remain open well into the latter years of the decade. We had been expecting a closing of the line by 2004, believing it to be unlikely that UPS would exercise the 30 option orders placed in 1998. Seventy-nine of the firm orders are from UPS for the A300-600F; five are from Iraq for the A310-300. The Iraqi order, placed 11 years ago, is still being reported as a firm order by Airbus, despite the likelihood that it will never be fulfilled. Airbus hopes, however, to be able to substitute A330 orders, as discussed above.

Only one net order for the A310 has been placed since 1996. In a very surprising turn of events, however, Japan Air System in August placed an order for three A300-600 passenger aircraft for delivery in 2002. We now project that the line will be operated at the slow pace of nine aircraft a year until it is closed in 2010.

The current -600 derivative of the A300 was first introduced in April 1988 with a delivery to American Airlines. The company had indicated some time ago that it was planning to upgrade the 220-266-seat A300-600/A310s, but these plans apparently have been abandoned. We believe that the lack of demand for these older model aircraft, and the cost burden of developing upgraded models along with the A380 and A340-500/-600 models, have discouraged any move toward further significant modifications. Airbus plans to deliver 10 A300/-310s in 2002.

Forecast Wide-body Airliner Orders, 2001-2010
Year    747  767  777  A300-310  A330-340  A380  Totals
2001    17   34   55   61        55        60    222
2002    24   15   35   -         40        10    114
2003    24   20   35   -         40        10    119
2004    36   35   45   -         50        10    166
2005    36   75   65   -         70        10    246
2006    36   95   80   -         70        15    281
2007    30   85   80   -         60        15    255
2008    20   72   70   -         50        15    212
2009    20   60   55   -         40        52    175
2010    20   60   55   -         40        15    175
Totals  256  457  552  61        510       145   1,836
Forecast Wide-body Airliner Deliveries, 2001-2010
Year    747  767  777  A300-310  A330-340  A380  Totals
2001    24   45   61   11        59        -     200
2002    24   18   50   12        60        -     164
2003    24   18   45   9         60        -     156
2004    24   24   50   9         60        -     167
2005    30   24   60   9         60        -     183
2006    36   60   60   9         70        8     235
2007    36   60   72   9         70        18    247
2008    36   72   72   9         65        18    254
2009    24   72   72   8         50        18    226
2010    24   72   72   5         50        18    223
Totals  284  430  596  93        626       62    2,029