High school graduates: past and projected

American Education, May, 1984 by W. Vance Grant

The number of high school graduates in the United States reached an all-time high of 3,161,000 in school year 1976-77. Subsequently, there have been small annual decreases in the number of persons completing their high school education. The National Center for Education Statistics estimates that about 2,750,000 young people will receive high school diplomas this year. Most high school graduations occur in May and June, but a small number of graduates, perhaps three percent of the total, receive their diplomas in the middle of the school year.

The decrease in the number of high school graduates for the past several years reflects the fact that fewer children were born in the mid-1960's than in the late 1950's and early 1960's. The trend fewer births continued through the mid-70's, reaching a low point between 3.1 and 3.2 million births a year from 1973 through 1976. Projections of the National Center for Education Statistics indicate that the number of high school graduates will continue to decline in most years until they reach 2.3 million 1991-92. (See the accompanying chart.)

A good predictor of the number of high school graduates in a given year is the number of children born 18 years earlier. Currently, the number of graduates is equal to about 73 percent of the 18-year-old population, and this relationship is expected to remain relatively stable in the years just ahead. The increase in the number of births which began in 1977 should be reflected in a new wave of larger graduating classes beginning in the mid-1990's. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education has projected that the number of graduates will sharply higher beginning with the class of 1994-95.

The projected trend in the number of high school graduates over the next eight to ten years has important implications for the Nation's colleges and universities. According to reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, between 49 and 54 percent of the new graduates in recent years have enrolled in college in the fall following high school graduation. If this proportion holds steady, the number of new graduates entering college could drop from nearly 1.6 million in 1982 and again in 1983 to about 1.2 million in 1992. In order to maintain their enrollment near current levels, many colleges and universities will need to recruit a substantial number of older and part-time students to offset the reduction in the number of new high school graduates who will be entering institutions of higher education.