The faith factor

Christian Century, Oct 5, 2004 by John Dart

DESPITE THE attention given to religious issues in tiffs year's presidential race, three public opinion experts have stated that the political force of faith and ethics questions has been overblown. Their assessment was not as blunt as the 1992 dictum "It's the economy, stupid!," but they came close.

National security, Iraq and the economy are "more decisive than social issues" for voters as November 2 nears, according to Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People & the Press. Kohut delivered the verdict in a panel discussion at the four-day Religion Newswriters Association convention in Washington, D.C.

The Catholic vote? "I don't think Catholics pay any more attention to their leaders' pronouncements than do Protestants," said Kohut. He also said he saw one poll indicating that fewer than 50 percent of Catholics knew that the Democratic nominee, Senator John Kerry, is Catholic.

The "Religious Left" vote? "I don't think there is such a bloc," said Anna Greenberg, vice president of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, noting also that polls say a candidate's stance on gay marriage is not crucial for voters choosing a president.

The third panelist, political scientist John C. Green of the University of Akron, cautioned the religion news specialists: "We can't forget that race, education, gender or economic status will often be the determination of how [people] vote."

That caveat from a well-regarded expert on religion and politics is all the more notable after months of criticisms of Kerry's abortion rights views by Catholic bishops and complaints by Democrats that President George W. Bush has manipulated his religiosity for voter appeal. Suspicions were even voiced during the Republican National Convention that the speaker's dais incorporated a subtle cross in its design.

Green directed the Pew Forum's newly released fourth annual National Survey of Religion and Politics, and discussed those findings at the September RNA meeting. Though interesting for its breakdown of "traditionalist, centrist and modernist" differences among U.S. Catholics, evangelical Protestants and mainline Protestants, the survey yielded few surprises relating to the upcoming elections.

Focusing on the many political "spins" aimed this year either at religious or nonreligious voters, several speakers at the RNA gathering doubted, for instance, that a factual basis existed for White House strategist Karl Rove's claim that 4 million evangelical Christians did not vote in 2000. That figure has often been cited by Republicans to energize pro-Bush evangelicals to get out the vote. "I don't know where they got that figure," Kohut said. "It's highly speculative," added Green.

Lately, Bush has begun to downplay his faith, as if to combat what supporters say are exaggerations about his evangelical fervor--despite the president's past rhetoric and acknowledged affinity with conservative Protestants. That spin was evident in the keynote address to journalists.

As expected, keynoter Jim Towey, director of the White House Office of Faith-based and Community Initiatives, described the Bush administation's frustrations with those he called "some extreme secularist" Democrats in the Senate who have "punished the poor" by not passing a faith-based bill. But Towey also spoke at length on Bush's "mainstream America" approach to faith.

"Bush doesn't see himself as a role model Christian for others," Towey said. "He's commander in chief, not chaplain in chief." Towey added: "I haven't seen him lost in prayer or levitating.... If he was a healer, he'd fix his knees," alluding to a condition that prevents Bosh from jogging. "I think President Bush uses religious language in speeches no more than other presidents [have]."

During the question period, Towey eventually asked to be excused for a staff meeting and invited a surprise speaker to finish for him. Up to the microphone came Kirbyjon Caldwell of Houston, pastor of United Methodism's largest church, who reportedly flew to Washington for that unscheduled appearance.

The African-American minister, regarded as a confidant to Bush, usually declines to say what the two Texans discuss. "I don't even talk about what he says I can talk about," said Caldwell, senior pastor of Windsor Village United Methodist Church in Houston. But his faith "is terribly misunderstood," he said. Contrary to some reports, Bush "does not believe God told him to run," or that God told him he would win, or to drop bombs. Asked if Bush believes in biblical inerrancy, Caldwell said, "I give him my position on the Bible; I don't ask him his."

The pastor's care regarding public ties with the White House extends to his megachurch's many social service programs. "We were doing faith-based work before it became popular, but I have not applied for federal funds during the Bush administration," Caldwell said.

Underlining Bush's close relationship with Caldwell, ex-Time magazine correspondent David Aikman said during another RNA panel that the only person that he "'was not allowed" to interview for his recent book, A Man of Faith: The Spiritual Journey of George W. Bush, was Caldwell--"because he knows too much."