A complex victory: letter from Peru - Column

Christian Century, Feb 16, 1994 by Ernest W. Ranly

WHO WON the October referendum on Peru% new constitution? The numbers record that President Alberto Fujimori won, and consequently his self-coup of April 5, 1992, and the constitution carefully crafted to bolster his governments economic policies have been legitimized. But the whole complex process must be analyzed. As. late as September the polls gave the Yes vote a 70 percent advantage. By the end of October Yes won by only a narrow margin. So the many disparate factions that worked for the No vote are claiming at least a moral victory.

The undisputed good news in Peru is that revolutionary violence has very noticeably decreased. Since the capture of rebel leader Abimael Guzman on September 12, 1992, the Maoist revolutionary movement Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) has been unable to reorganize and to carry on its disciplined guerrilla warfare. Sporadic bombings and killings still occur, especially in some jungle areas populated by indigenous peoples, but there is no longer a sustained strategy. The news media constantly report on the capture or surrender of both Shining Path and Tupac Amaru guerrillas.

These successes are often the result of the "law of repentance," which offers immunity and reduced penalties to those who "repent" by informing on their comrades in arms. It is a vicious situation. No group or society honors those who betray their companions. But as the revolutionary groups' esprit de corps disintegrates, one by one the survivors try to save themselves by ratting on former comrades. One result is the arrest and imprisonment of many innocent people; their names have been turned in by some of the "repentant," and the police round them up with little or no respect for human fights. Those who work in prison ministry report large numbers of innocents among the political prisoners charged with terrorism.

The most surprising development has been the publication of letters written by Guzman from prison--letters which give evidence of a complete change of mind and heart. Characteristically, President Fujimori has tried to make political capital of this development; for example, he revealed the content of the first letter to the United Nations. That the letters come from the hand of Guzman is beyond dispute. But Guzman's final intent in the letters is far from clear.

The success of the government's antisubversion program was a major element in Fujimori's campaign for a Yes vote in favor of the new constitution. Huge banners sporting the Yes color green read: "For a Peru without violence, vote Yes." Early on in the campaign Fujimori tried to turn the referendum into a popular plebiscite on himself and his style of government. At the close of the campaign, however, the government reduced the issue to simple patriotism: "If you love Peru, vote Yes."

The new constitution would allow the death penalty for some very specific crimes. But in the close vote on the referendum, the forces working against the death penalty played an important role. For years, President Fujimori won majority popular backing by advocating capital punishment. During the guerrilla war, such punishment seemed to most Peruvians a natural and good thing. SOme Catholic bishops, especially the more conservative Opus Dei bishops, taking their cue from the new Universal Catechism, publicly supported the death penalty. The Catholic Church officially tried to remain neutral regarding the Yes and No vote, while Protestant groups reacted strongly against Fujimori. Also, many church groups continued to work with civil rights groups to campaign against the death penalty (and therefore in favor of the No vote against the constitution).

Fujimori was like a dog biting his own tail. He could hardly support the death penalty at a time when he was in personal communication with Abimael Guzman, a prisoner condemned to life imprisonment who seemingly is half-repentant.

The most ironic element of the pro-Yes campaign was that it fell into the same trap that defeated the Liberty Party of novelist-turned-politician Mario Vargas Llosa in 1990: it tried to win the Peruvian people by a sophisticated, massive media campaign. Fujimori forgot that his early popularity stemmed from his being an unknown "cholo" (half-breed) fighting against an internationally famous writer who tried to "buy" the presidency through an expensive media campaign. Certainly, the sizable No vote was not due to any sympathy for the traditional political parties, with all their infighting, corruption and ineptitude. Every day Fujimori acts more and more like any other politician. And large numbers of people voted No.

At bottom, as is often the case, the most important issue is economic. There is majority support for converting from a statist, centrally controlled economy to one open to the forces in the world market. But as in Eastern Europe, the process is much slower and much more painful than what had been promised. Some state companies have been sold to private international firms. There is some evidence that at the neighborhood level, small businesses are now more productive. But massive unemployment persists, as does a severe economic recession.