Where will Blacks be 50 years from now?

Ebony, Feb, 1996

What will the state of affairs for Blacks be 50 years from now? Will Blacks be overwhelmed by the new spirit of anti-black and anti-poor conservatism that is currently sweeping the country or will they turn adversity into opportunity Will Black gains made in the past 50 years, politics, entertainment and sports or will they achieve even greater next half century?

To help us draw a bead on where Black people will be 50 years from now, Ebony contacted outstanding African-Americans with extraordinary track records in a wide range of fields and asked them to consult their crystal balls and project where, based on their own experiences and perspectives, Blacks will be economically, politically and otherwise by the year 2046.

While some of the respondents see difficult times ahead in the short run, most are optimistic in their belief that, in the long run, Black perseverance, ingenuity and faith will prevail and that time is on our side.

The following are the predictions of prominent personalities in the fields of politics, music entertainment and sports.

MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT

Shirley Caesar

Grammy Award-winning gospel singer

"If the Lord delays His coming, a larger proportion of the executive suites at most gospel music companies will be filled by Blacks over the next 50 years. This is our hour, and the day is going to come when we'll play an even greater role in the gospel music industry than we do today.

"And gospel music, itself, will forever withstand the test of time because this country was built on religion. Gospel music is our own. My father sang gospel as a child, and I sang gospel as a child. America will never outgrow its need for gospel [music] because it will never outgrow its need for God."

Dr. Samuel Floyd Jr.

Director Center for Black Music Research Columbia College, Chicago

"Black conductors have proved their mettle and are well received by American symphony orchestras. Some now hold positions as music directors of big-city orchestras, with James DePreist conducting the Oregon Symphony and Michael Morgan the Oakland East Bay Symphony Orchestra. Within the next 50 years, I think a Black conductor will head a major symphony orchestra. DePreist is a likely candidate now, and there are younger conductors honing their skills for such an opportunity. Leslie Dunner, the associate conductor of the Detroit Symphony, Morgan, and Kay George Roberts, for example, among them. Whether this ever occurs will be determined by the nation's political climate, racial progress and the degree to which the myths and traditions of the concert hall retain their ascendancy."

Berry Gordy

Motown Founder

The future will depend on how creative we are. As long as there is creativity, well be all right. There will always be a need to feed the music machine and keep it going. And as the big record companies get larger and inevitably get bogged down in red tape, there will be more opportunity for Black entrepreneurs to make headway in the industry. In music you have to act fast and be able to move fast. With the introduction of the compact disc, we are seeing a rebirth of jazz. It may even be just as popular now as it has ever been. I don't see it becoming so popular that jazz songs will become Top 40 hits or go No. 1, but it's never been that way. It's always been a form of music for hip people, Black and White.

"Through rap, individuals have had a chance to express all sorts of ideas. I think music over the next 50 years will become more melodic, with more tying in the ideas of the new generation with the old Motown beat. There will be more sampling. And that's good. The new people in music are doing a brilliant job and there probably will be another Berry Gordy emerging in the next 50 years."

Politics

Donald Payne

U.S. Representative, D-N.J. Chairman Congressional Black Caucus

"The future for Blacks in politics is going to be positive, but difficult. We'll see a reawakening of African-Americans to the voting process, reminiscent of the '60s, and minority people are going to become the majority. It's going to be a much more diverse country.

"But there will be increased resistance. For instance, the new Republican Party is espousing policies that are so anti-minority, anti-African-American and anti-children--issues which the Black community deems important.

"Despite these setbacks, I'm optimistic. I expect to see a Black president in the next 50 years. I believe the right person will come at the right time.

"But the greatest challenge Blacks will face in the future is reviving a spirit of activism among the nation's youth. Young people were more involved when I came up. You were active. Today, we need to make a concerted effort to identify, develop and nurture young leadership."

Norm Rice

Seattle Mayor President U. S. Conference of Mayors

"In the political arena, I think we will continue to see an increase in the number of African-Americans in government positions. That trend will continue. There are some storm clouds on the horizon, with the re-emergence of racist attitudes, but we have such a large talent pool of African-Americans that we should be just fine. We are seeing more and more Blacks who have political experience at all levels: school boards, city and county councils and on committees and commissions. I think we'll see more mayors, more governors and I'm hopeful that we will see a Black president in the next 50 years. I believe this will happen if African-Americans continue to be strong, not only on civil rights, but on financial and economic issues as well."