The future small business workforce: will labor shortages exist? The available evidence is less than perfect

Business Economics, Oct, 2004 by Bruce D. Phillips

TABLE 1 1982-2012 CURRENT AND PROJECTED LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES,
WORKERS 55 YEARS AND OVER

                                                   CHANGE,
GROUP                     1982  1992  2002  2012  2002-2012

All Workers, 55 and Over  31.9  29.7  34.5  39.7  5.2
  55-64                   55.1  56.2  61.9  65.1  3.2
  65-74                   16.2  16.3  20.4  23.6  3.2
  75                       4.9   4.5   5.1   5.7  0.6
Men, 55 and Over          43.8  38.4  42.0  45.8  3.8
  55-64                   70.2  67.0  69.2  69.9  0.7
  65-74                   22.5  21.1  25.5  29.1  3.6
  75                       8.5   7.3   7.6   8.2  0.6
Women, 55 and Over        22.7  22.8  28.5  34.5  6.0
  55-64                   41.8  46.5  55.2  60.6  5.4
  65-74                   11.3  12.5  16.1  18.9  2.8
  75                       2.8   2.8   3.5   4.1  0.6

Source: Derived from Table 3, Toosi (2004).

TABLE 2 2002 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS BY FIRM SIZE (PERCENT)

AGE OF
WORKERS           LESS THAN 55  55-64     65-74     75 

FIRM SIZE:
  Under 10             83.3         11.1       4.4     1.2
(Number in 000)   (14,628)      (1,945)     (775)   (218)
10-24                  86.2          9.9       3.1     0.8
                      (11.035)  (1,260)     (392)   (104)
25-99                  86.1         10.6       2.8     0.5
                  (15,189)      (1,869)     (495)    (85)
100                    86.7         10.9       2.0     0.4
                  (55,526)      (6,967)   (1,301)   (264)

Source: Prepared for the NFIB Research Foundation by the Employee
Benefit Research Institute under contract. Data are from the March, 2003
Current Population Survey (CPS), Bureau of the Census.

TABLE 3 2002 PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF NON-FARM FULL-TIME WORKERS VS.
PART-TIME WORKERS BY MAJOR INDUSTRY

                      Full-Time                             Part-Time
Sector                ([greater than or equal to]35hrs/wk)  (<35hrs/wk)

Ag and Ag Services                   82.0                      18.0
Mining                               96.3                       3.7
Construction                         91.0                       9.0
Manufacturing                        95.0                       5.0
Wholesale and Retail
  Trade                              73.8                      26.2
Transportation and
  Utilities                          89.3                      10.7
Communications                       87.3                      12.7
Finance, Insurance
  and Real Estate                    87.0                      13.0
Other Services                       72.4                      27.6
All Sectors                          80.0                      20.0

                      Full-Time                             Part-Time
Sector                ([greater than or equal to]20hrs/wk)  (<20hrs/wk)

Ag and Ag Services                   92.8                      7.2
Mining                               99.3                      0.7
Construction                         98.2                      1.8
Manufacturing                        98.9                      1.1
Wholesale and Retail
  Trade                              91.7                      8.3
Transportation and
  Utilities                          97.8                      2.2
Communications                       95.6                      4.4
Finance, Insurance
  and Real Estate                    96.7                      3.3
Other Services                       90.7                      9.3
All Sectors                          93.6                      6.4

Source: Tables prepared for the NFIB Research Foundation by the Employee
Benefit Research Institute, under contract, from the March, 2003 CPS.

TABLE 4 2002 PERCENTAGE OF NON-FARM WORKERS WORKING PART-TIME, BY AGE
GROUP

             Working <20 Hours per Week  Working 21-35 Hours Per Week
             Total  Male  Female         Total  Male  Female

All Workers   6.6    4.0   9.5           19.8   12.7  27.6
  16-24      17.7   14.4  21.1           46.1   40.2  52.5
  25-44       3.6    1.1   6.5           13.2    5.6  21.9
  45-54       3.1    1.0   5.3           11.7    4.7  19.3
  55-64       5.8    3.2   8.6           17.3   10.7  24.9
  65         21.4    1.7  27.0           48.3   42.7  55.5

Source: Prepared by the Employee Benefit Research Institute for the NFIB
Research Foundation, under contract from March, 2003 CPS Data.

TABLE 5 2002 DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS BY IMMIGRATION STATUS, BY
CITIZENSHIP STATUS, AND BY FIRM SIZE, PRIVATE SECTOR

                             Native-Born     Immigrants-  Immigrants-
Firm Size:          Total     Citizens        Citizens    Non-Citizens
(No. of employees)           (In thousands)

Total, All Sizes    114,756     97,410          6,155        11,191
    <10              18,180     14,795          1,039         2,347
     10-24           13,263     10,963            619         1,681
     25-99           18,060     15,076            909         2,075
    100-499          17,555     14,820          1,022         1,713
    500              47,697     41,756          2,566         3,375

Firm Size:          N-B C  I-C  I-N-C
(No. of employees)  (Percent of class size)

Total, All Sizes    84.9   5.4   9.8
    <10             81.4   5.7  12.9
     10-24          82.7   4.7  12.7
     25-99          83.5   5.0  11.5
    100-499         84.4   5.8   9.8
    500             87.5   5.4   7.1

Note: Percentages may not add to totals due to rounding errors.

TABLE 6 2000-2202 DISTRIBUTION OF RECENT IMMIGRANTS IN SELECTED LABOR
INTENSIVE OCCUPATIONS VS. DISTRIBUTION IN FAST-GROWING OCCUPATIONS

                                   Percent Of  Percent Total Employment
                                     Total     Provided by Recent
                                   Employment  Immigrants (last five
Occupation Type:                               years)

Labor IntensiveOccupations:
Construction Trades                    5.6             10.7
Food Preparation and Serving           8.6             20.4
Production Occupations                 7.8             12.9

Fast GrowingOccupations:
Healthcare Practitioners               4.5              2.3
Business and Financial
  Occupations                          3.9              1.7
Management Occupations                10.6              4.7
Office and Administrative Support     14.7              7.1

Total, All listed Occupations         55.7             59.8

Source: Derived from Michael W. Horrigan, Employment Projections to
2012: Concepts and Context." Monthly Labor Review, February, 2004. Table
8.