Statistics corner - The Framework for Planning U.S. Federal Statistics - Column

Business Economics, April, 1993 by Joseph W. Duncan

PRIOR TO THE 1976 election, I participated in the preparation of a report called, "The Framework for Planning U.S. Federal Statistics." The purpose of the document was to prepare background material for revitalizing the federal statistical system after the 1976 elections. Work on the document was initiated in early 1975 with the view that there is a narrow window at the beginning of any new Administration for considering long-range problems, such as redesigning federal statistics. At the beginning of the Clinton Administration, a similar opportunity exists, but there is not a similar document to set forth such a program. In this column I will outline some of the background and philosophy of the effort in 1976 and make a few suggestions for action in 1993.

BACKGROUND FOR THE FRAMEWORK

Federal statistics do not get development in a vacuum. Essentially they are the byproduct of the needs of federal program administrators and the Congress. Most federal statistics are derived from information collected as part of governmental regulatory and administrative actions. This was dramatically demonstrated in the 1960s. At that time, aggressive social policy programs led to new statistical programs designed to monitor progress on achieving social goals and for evaluating the impact of new social initiatives. During much of the 1960s, the budgets for statistical agencies soared, rising at a compound growth rate in nominal terms of more than 15 percent per year.

This rapid growth slowed with the efforts of the Nixon Administration to reduce the Great Society Programs of the 1960s. By 1974, when President Ford assumed office, federal statistical program growth had dramatically slowed. While President Ford signed a bill authorizing a mid-decade Census, no funds were included in his "No New Starts" budget for 1976 for the planning and design of this newly proposed effort to keep track of rapidly changing social conditions by making a census every five years.

As a result of sharply revised federal policy for social intervention, including a movement for federal-level deregulation, it was clear that the time was ripe for a revaluation of statistical program priorities. This insured that available resources could be allocated to meet future statistical needs while improving the accuracy of the existing statistical measures. The introduction to the Framework in 1976 pointed out some of the requirements for setting priorities in statistical programs. It stated:

"The ultimate resolution of statistical issues involves an important collaboration among the providers of the information (the respondents to various Federal inquiries), the collectors and analyzers of this information (the statistical and analytical agencies), and the private and public decisionmakers who incorporate that information into their decision processes.

"All three sectors -- the providers, the statistical agencies, and the decisionmakers -- are essential to the development of the Federal Statistical System. Obviously, no statistics would be available if respondents failed to cooperate in surveys. The statistical agencies, in their central role of creating effective collection mechanisms, providing quality control, and compiling and analyzing results, have important creative contributions to make as a result of this direct involvement in the statistical process.

"Finally, the decisionmakers who utilize the information are able to provide important insights into the level of quality and timeliness required to assure appropriate policy use of statistical information."

CARTER TRANSITION

After eight years of Republican control of the White House, President Carter came into office with an anti-Beltway establishment approach to government. His initial goals included a large-scale effort to reorganize the government, and his political appointees were particularly wary of the career bureaucrats that had served under Republican leadership.

As part of the effort to reduce the White House staff, the statistical policy function was transferred to the Department of Commerce from the Office of Management and Budget. Although many of the executive powers were transferred, the influence of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards weakened as OMB officials still assumed many of the delegated functions, such as review of legislation for proper use of statistical series in fund-allocation formulas.

Needless to say, although the Framework study was formally published in 1978, it had only a limited influence as the President's Reorganization Team was undertaking an independent review of the federal statistical system. The statistical reorganization project results are summarized in the Bonnen report published in Statistical Reporter, May 1980, (pps. 191-212) in an article called "Improving the Federal Statistical System: Report of the President's Reorganization Project for the Federal Statistical System." In December 1980 (after the election of President Reagan), Congress enacted the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1980. This Act moved statistical coordination back to the Office of Management and Budget, but now it was significantly reduced in size and stature. Today the Office of Statistical Policy has a very small staff of five professionals and two secretaries (compared with the staff of twenty-nine permanent and eleven detainees who prepared the Framework).