LETTERS

Natural History, June, 2001

O Pioneers!

"The Scavenging of `Peking Man,'" by Noel T. Boaz and Russell L. Ciochon (3/01), was fascinating. However, Helmuth Zapfe's studies on cow bones fed to captive hyenas were not, as the article states, pioneering. William Buckland, the first professor of geology at the University of Oxford, conducted the same experiments in Oxford in 1821 by feeding ox bones to a hyena in a traveling menagerie. He compared the fragmented bones with bones found in various caves in England, which he interpreted as having been ancient hyena dens--at the time, a most controversial view. Buckland published detailed comparative engravings of the bones. His work and experimental approach were truly pioneering.

Neville Halle Oxford, England

Heaven ...

Could authors Scott L. Wing ("Hot Times in the Bighorn Basin," 4/01) and Kenneth D. Rose ("Wyoming's Garden of Eden," 4/01) be a little more specific as to where in the Bighorn Basin their studies take place? The basin is paleontology heaven, with excellent outcroppings of everything from Precambrian to Tertiary age in the Wind River Canyon, at the southernmost part of the basin, to huge dinosaur finds in Thermopolis and outstanding petroglyphs at Cottonwood Creek near Hamilton Dome.

Steve Leece Baguio City, Philippines

SCOTT WING REPLIES: "Paleontology heaven is" the best two-word description I have heard for the Bighorn Basin. The Paleocene and Eocene fossils and rocks that we study are near Cody and other towns in the central portion of the basin. Within that area are literally thousands of fossil locations. Almost all of these are away from major rivers, dry creeks, and sagebrush flats, where recent sediments tend to cover the older rocks.

... and Hell

Scott Wing matter-of-factly writes of the Eocene global warming as being "perhaps as rapid as the one we humans are about to cause and experience." I don't believe there is enough evidence to support such a strong indictment of humanity. There have been many other documented ice ages in the last 100,000 years and rapid warming and cooling spells in the interglacial periods. The fact is that little, if anything, is known about what causes climatic change on a large scale. To blame humanity is harsh and premature.

Kent K. Smith via e-mail

SCOTT WING REPLIES: Kent Smith correctly states that rapid climate change has occurred in the absence of human activity. That was what my article was about, so I clearly do not "blame humanity" for all climate change. That said, the addition of [CO.sub.2] and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere through human activities is well measured and documented, and I am not aware of any scientists who dispute that these gases lead to an increase in temperature near the earth's surface. The exact amount of warming that will be generated, the possible role of countervailing factors, and the effects of climate change on plants and animals are poorly understood at present. That's one reason why research into the history of climate change is important and why working on these problems is prudent planet management--the business we humans are getting into, whether we admit it or not.

Interesting Point

Steven N. Austad's review of The Quest for Immortality: Science at the Frontiers of Aging, by S. Jay Olshansky and Bruce A. Carnes (4/01), does a good job of highlighting the two sides of the anti-aging debate, but his description of a bet with Olshansky overstates the miracle of compounding. The author reckons that their $300 bet will have become $500 million in the year 2150. Not likely. Eight percent rather than 10 percent annual interest is probably more realistic, and that yields a more modest figure of $30 million. Figuring in 3 percent inflation, we wind up with a much less impressive $450,000 at the end of those 150 years.

Stuart Robinson via e-mail

STEVEN AUSTAD REPLIES: The miracle of compound interest is pretty evident, given that a mere 2 percent difference in our interest-rate assumptions leads to Stuart Robinson's calculation of my wager as yielding a mere $30 million, compared with my estimate of $500 million (or more than $7 billion if the interest rate is 2 percent higher). I trust that my guess, using seventy years of history as a guide, has as much credibility as Robinson's--that is, very little. Regardless of inflation, $30 million or $500 million or $7 billion ought to at least buy my descendants a good night on the town to celebrate their farsighted ancestor.

Natural History's e-mail address is nhmag@amnh.org.