Estimating economic losses in the Bay Area from a magnitude-6.9 earthquake

Monthly Labor Review, Dec, 2007 by Richard J. Holden, Donna Bahls, Charles Real

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

Note

(1) A Virtual Tour of the Hayward Fault (U.S. Geological Survey), Mar. 9, 2006, available on the Internet at www usgs.gov/newsroom/article. asp?ID=1452.

Richard J. Holden is Regional Commissioner, San Francisco regional office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Donna Bahls is a geographic information specialist (GIS) in the California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division; Charles Real is Supervising Engineering Geologist, California Geological Survey, Seismic Hazard Assessment Program. E-mail: holden. richard@bls.gov; Imid.dbahls@ edd.ca.gov; chuck.real@conservation.ca.gov.

Table 1. Exposure from a magnitude-6.9 earthquake along
the Hayward Fault for nine San Francisco Bay Area counties

                            MMI VIII 

                Severe shaking, moderate to heavy damage

   County       Employers   Employment   Quarterly wages

    Total         30,533      458,712     5,782,138,134
Alameda           25,753      400,462     5,141,738,560
Contra Costa       3,392       36,606       340,548,652
Marin                154        1,807        21,803,937
Napa                  56          446         4,189,187
San Francisco        (1)          (1)               (1)
San Mateo            (1)          (1)               (1)
Santa Clara        1,084       18,357       263,495,223
Solano                 5           21           129,180
Sonoma                89        1,013        10,233,395

                             MMI VII

                  Very strong shaking, moderate damage

   County       Employers   Employment   Quarterly wages

    Total         56,507    1,060,168    18,995,839,013
Alameda           11,567      210,870     3,112,142,678
Contra Costa      11,936      180,576     2,609,854,090
Marin              2,280       29,371       416,044,149
Napa                 618       11,423       136,324,614
San Francisco     12,220      239,022     4,959,257,643
San Mateo            753       24,249       653,217,259
Santa Clara       15,263      337,954     6,836,033,375
Solano             1,605       20,314       185,098,827
Sonoma               265        6,389        87,866,378

No areas of San Francisco County or San Mateo County are expected
to experience shaking intensities of level MMI VIII or greater.

NOTE: Data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages, third quarter, 2006

Table 2. Exposure from a magnitude-6.9
earthquake along the Hayward Fault, 2006

         Alameda County                Shaking intensity areas

     Item         County totals   MMI VIII    MMI VIII   Combined MMI
                                                          VII-VIII 

Employers                40,851      25,753     11,567         37,320
Employment              681,821     400,462    210,870        611,391
Quarterly wages
  (in billions)            $9.3        $5.1       $3.1           $8.2

NOTE: Data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly
Census of Employment and Wages, third quarter, 2006.

Table 3. Estimated business exposures and employment losses
from Hurricane Katrina in FEMA Identified Damage Areas, 2004

                  FEMA Identified                   Measured
     Item             Damage         FEMA IDA      employment
                    Areas (IDA)       0.5 mile   losses, 2004-0$

Employers                  18,997       31,133              ...
Employment                316,063      499,650           353,116
Quarterly wages
  (in billions)                $3         $4.7              ...

NOTE: Data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly
Census of Employment and Wages, fourth quarter, 2004.