New journal from OECD - Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development - Brief Article

Monthly Labor Review, Jan, 2004

Feeling that there has been "a lack of international journals dealing specifically with statistical and economic research on business cycles," the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development recently launched the Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

The introductory essay by the eminent business cycle scholar Victor Zarnowitz succinctly lays out the need for and possible direction of such a journal. After noting that the historical chronologies of business cycles maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research extend back over two centuries, Zarnowitz establishes that these fluctuations "vary greatly in duration and intensity, less in diffusion, timing and interaction of their many constituent processes."

This leads Zarnowitz to outline two broad research questions. First, are cycles better understood in terms of shocks or imbalances. His own preference seems to lean toward imbalance stories, but he notes the rigorous theoretical attractiveness of models such as linear dynamic equilibrium. Second, is the empirical question of whether or not business cycles are moderating over time. While recent history indicates this might be so, Zarnowitz notes, "Contractions tend to be more frequent and severe in deflationary times than during times of inflation, which helps explain why some moderation of business cycles took place in the last half-century."

Other articles in the issue address survey expectations, modeling interest rates, using qualitative survey data, detecting cyclical turning points, and composite indicators of Swiss manufacturing. The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has an ambitious editorial mission; but, as Zarnowitz concludes, "business cycles are (1) neither dead nor dying, (2) still complex, changing, and misinterpreted, and (3) deserving much further study, better understanding, and more effective counterpolicies."