Alaska's 'brain drain': myth or reality? A variety of administrative data are used to determine if the long-term education, employment, and outmigration patterns of Alaska's youth are draining Alaska's labor force, causing 'brain drain'

Monthly Labor Review, May, 2004 by Jeff Hadland

Alaska has one of the highest outmigration rates in the Nation. The general belief is that a disproportionately large percentage of Alaska's young adults leave Alaska after graduating from high school or after completing some postsecondary education in the State. Also, there is wide concern that the percentage of Alaskans who continue their education beyond high school is among the lowest in the Nation. (1) This article presents data to quantify these phenomena, sometimes characterized as a "brain drain," using a variety of administrative data.

This article tracks a study group of more than 16,000 Alaskans, age 15-16 in 1994 (hereinafter, 1994 Youth). (2) It follows this group through their postsecondary education in Alaska and at out-of-State institutions and examines their employment status in Alaska.

Summary of findings

* More than 62 percent of the 1994 Youth were still Alaskan residents in 2002, compared with 71.3 percent of the total Alaskan population.

* A little more than 55 percent of the 1994 Youth group had some reported postsecondary education, nearly identical to the postsecondary education rate of a group of 17- and 18-year-old Alaskan youth in 2000.

* Approximately 62 percent of the 1994 Youth group who pursued postsecondary education, did so exclusively in Alaska.

* More than 84 percent of the 1994 Youth who had received their postsecondary education exclusively in Alaska were still Alaska residents in 2002, compared with 51 percent of the 1994 Youth who had received postsecondary education exclusively outside the State were Alaska residents in 2002.

* Nearly 70 percent of the 1994 Youth group with postsecondary education had attended the University of Alaska at some time from 1996 through 2002.

* More than 12 percent of the total 1994 Youth group earned one or more degrees as of the end of 2002.

* Nearly 54 percent (8,659) of the 1994 Youth group were employed in Alaska in 2002 based upon a match with Alaskan unemployment insurance wage records. Average 2002 earnings varied by educational attainment, with highest average earnings in Alaska achieved by those youth who had earned a degree at the University of Alaska.

The number of young Alaskans entering the labor force each year is rapidly increasing. In 2002, there were nearly twice as many 16-year-old Alaskans (11,246) as there were new jobs created in Alaska from 2001 to 2002 (6,500). Nevertheless, a significant number of employment opportunities are available to new entrants to the labor force. The large number of new hires each quarter and an increasing number of workers approaching retirement age all present opportunities to young jobseekers. Although there is always the likelihood of a mismatch between skills of a new worker and job openings, tracking the postsecondary education and employment patterns of young Alaskans can be helpful in determining priorities and programs that could provide additional opportunities in the coming years for Alaska youth.

Methodology

More than 16,000 Alaskans age 15-16 in 1994 were identified based upon reported date of birth on their Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend application (3) and matched with unemployment insurance wage records, as well as a variety of administrative data. This cohort was tracked from 1994 to 2002 and monitored on its continuing education and employment outcomes. There is currently no high school graduate database available for Alaska, so this compilation was used as a proxy for that information. An additional group of 20,413 17- and 18-year-olds in 2000 was selected for tracking short-term postsecondary education choices.

The majority of the study group retained their Alaska residency during the 1994-2002 evaluation period and had identifiable postsecondary education both within and outside Alaska. No information was available for youth employed outside Alaska or youth who died or left the United States during this period. Youth arriving in Alaska after 1994 were excluded from the study group.

Administrative data. The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend application form provides a few key demographic variables. Age, sex and place of residence information is collected from the file and used to identify the population, identify place of residence by year, determine continued residency and track in-State and estimate out-of-State migration.

Continuing education among Alaskan youth was tracked using University of Alaska and other Alaska postsecondary education files, as well as National Student Clearinghouse data showing education and degrees obtained in other Alaskan schools and in other States. Although not all out-of-State schools and all years were available, the Clearinghouse data helped to fill a gap in information about the large number of Alaskans who pursue postsecondary education outside the State. Although not all schools report information for all years, the data provided was the best available for postsecondary education activity and outcomes of the Alaska youth population.

Other available data In addition to industry and earnings information, Alaska's unemployment insurance wage record file contains occupation and place of work information for most wage and salary workers in the State. Employers are provided with special occupational coding manuals, based on the Standard Occupational Classification system that assist them in coding each of their worker's jobs. Besides providing information on the progress of workers through a career ladder, the coding manuals allow researchers to compare occupational information by matching an occupation with the typical education level for that occupation and examine earnings by occupation. In addition, occupation data associated with each worker are helpful in determining if workers were employed in an occupation related to their education and training. This information is collectively known as Alaska's Occupational Database. The Wage Record Interchange System could not be used to track the employment outcomes of youth that were employed outside the State because that file can be used only for evaluating the performance of certain federally funded training programs, primarily those associated with the Workforce Investment Act.