Alaska's 'brain drain': myth or reality? A variety of administrative data are used to determine if the long-term education, employment, and outmigration patterns of Alaska's youth are draining Alaska's labor force, causing 'brain drain'

Monthly Labor Review, May, 2004 by Jeff Hadland

The relatively high migration rate among youth from Alaska is the result of many factors. The estimated number of youth leaving the State is quite high, but the overall rate of outmigration has not increased in recent years. In fact, the percentage of 18-year-olds leaving the State in the late 1990s (about 9 percent annually) was lower than that at any time during the decade.

Each year during the 1990s, at least 11,000 Alaska youth entered the labor force. This inflow was more than matched by a growing number of job openings. Current Occupational Employment Statistics projections estimate an increase in Alaska employment of 16.7 percent from 302,255 to 352,693 between 2000 and 2010, resulting in more than 12,000 job openings projected annually during this 10-year period. These projected openings are the combined result of employment growth and net separations from the occupations and do not include jobs resulting from employee turnover.

In addition to overall employment growth, there are additional opportunities available to new entrants to the labor force. Currently, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development estimates that there were nearly 68,000 nonresidents of Alaska employed at some time in Alaska in 2001. Alaska residency of workers is determined using Permanent Fund Dividend data. Industries, occupations, and employers that have high nonresident hire rates signal an unmet training need and a placement opportunity for Alaska's training programs.

Turnover in the workplace provides additional employment opportunities. In 2001, there were approximately 200,000 new "hires," defined as a worker, hired by an employer in a quarter, who had not worked for that employer at any time in the previous four calendar quarters. (See table 11.) These hires, along with other wage record transaction measures can help to identify employment opportunities for jobseekers and training needs for training providers.

Wage records matched with administrative data also help to identify rapidly changing retirement rates in particular industries and occupations. Alaska's population is "aging" rapidly, and assuming no significant change in the average retirement age, the quickly increasing average age of workers suggests that retirement (and death) will play an even larger role in the number of Alaska job openings during the next several years. In 2001, 16.6 percent of private sector workers in Alaska were age 50 and older and 8.5 percent were age 55 and older. More than 20 percent of workers in the oil industry and health care industry are age 50 or older, and in State government, more than 28 percent of all workers are older than age 50.

Given the relatively long lead time required to train workers in many occupations, the combination of increasing average age, turnover, and underlying growth in industry and occupations are all important in identifying training needs and opportunities.

ALASKA'S YOUTH APPEAR TO BE participating in postsecondary education at rates comparable to youth in the rest of the United States, although there is a significant difference in participation rates between different geographic areas of Alaska. Overall outmigration from Alaska continues to be quite high, with the highest rates found in the older youth-young adult age groups. These high migration rates for youth and young adults suggest that brain drain is more reality than myth. Despite the high level of outmigration and participation in postsecondary education outside the State, the majority of Alaska youth age 15-16 in 1994 retained their Alaskan residency through 2002.