What happened to the high school class of 1985? - youth employment

Monthly Labor Review, Oct, 1986 by Sharon R. Cohany

What happened to the high school class of 1985?

Almost 3.3 million youths either graduated from high school or dropped out between October 1984 and 1985.(1) The proportion of graduates who enrolled in college set a record.2 Graduates who did not attend college were typically in the labor force, and their unemployment rate was 11 percentage points lower than the 36-percent rate recorded for those who dropped out of high school and entered the labor force. The differing labor market experiences for these three groups highlight the fact that youth with educational deficiencies typically encounter work-related problems which may last for the rest of their lives.

Going on to college

Reflecting the declining school-age population of the "baby-bust' generation, the high school graduating class of 1985 was smaller than those in recent years. A total of 2.7 million young people graduated from high school, down half a million from the peak reached in the mid-1970's. (See table 1.) Despite the smaller number, the proportion of seniors going on to college has been rising gradually over the past few years. It reached a record 58 percent in 1985, after hovering between 50 and 55 percent for most of the 1970's and early 1980's. (See table 2.)

Sex. In recent years, college enrollment rates for men and women just out of high school have drawn closer together, eliminating the wide differences that existed in the early 1970's. By 1985, enrollment rates for men and women were 59 and 57 percent, respectively. The rate for men had returned to the high levels recorded during the early 1970's-- the tail end of the Vietnam-era's military draft--while that for women was at its highest level ever.

Once enrolled in college, men and women have roughly the same labor force participation rates--around 44 percent. Despite substantial increases in tuition and other college expenses, this overall participation rate has changed little since the late 1970's. Grants, loans, family contributions, and summer earnings have continued to enable a majority of full-time students to stay out of the labor force during the school year.3 (See table 3.)

Race. A large gap still exists in the proportion of black and white high school graduates who go on to college. In October 1985, the proportion of enrolled black seniors was 42 percnet, compared with 59 percent for whites. Despite some improvement over the last few years, the black proportion was still well below their 46- to 48-percent range during the 1970's.

Large differences by race also persist with regard to labor force participation. Only 31 percent of the black college enrollees were in the labor force, compared with almost 47 percent of the whites. One reason for this difference was that a higher proportion of black students were enrolled in 2-year institutions, which are, on average, less expensive than 4-year colleges and universities.4

Not going on to college

About 1.1 million members of the class of 1985 did not enroll in college. Their overall rate of labor force participation was 82 percent, somewhat lower than that prevailing during the past decade. Participation rates for men in this category were higher than those for women, and rates for whites were higher than those for blacks and Hispanics.

The incidence of unemployment for these high school graduates in the labor force has drifted upward during the 1980's. In 1985, about 1 of 4 were looking for work, compared with around 1 of 6 during the 1970's. Thus, despite a shrinking youth population and less competition for entry-level positions, young people who end their formal education with a high school diploma still have a hard time finding jobs. In part, this may result from the increasing demands of employers for better educated workers, given the higher educational level of the work force and a surplus of college graduates in some fields.5

High school dropouts

A total of 612,000 youths dropped out of high school between October 1984 and 1985. This was about the same number as in the previous 2 years, but lower than in the 1970's, reflecting mainly the declining teenage population.

Male dropouts were much more likely to be labor force participants than the women, a fourth of whom had family responsibilities. One study showed that many of the young women who dropped out of high school as sophomores in 1980 gave such family-related reasons as marriage or plans to marry (31 percent), pregnancy (23 percent), and the need to support a family (8 percent).6

Leaving school before graduation particularly affects the labor force participation of black youth. While 72 percent of the white dropouts were in the labor force, only 52 percent of the black dropouts were. This was a much wider spread than for the graduates not enrolled in college.

Reflecting their relatively low skill and experience levels, recent dropouts have extremely high unemployment rates, nearly 36 percent in 1985. This jobseeking rate has averaged 35 percent thus far in the 1980's, compared with a 27-percent average in the 1970's. In this respect, the jobless picture for dropouts has paralleled the upturn in the unemployment rate for workers in general, although at much higher levels.