Global warming debate heats up

Nation's Business, Oct, 1997 by Stephen Blakely

President Clinton recently began lobbying on behalf of a controversial treaty on global climate change that even some members of his administration forecast would harm the U.S. economy. The pact is expected to be finalized and signed by the leaders of 160 nations -- including Clinton -- in December in Kyoto, Japan.

Clinton has endorsed the scientific view that mankind is causing global warming, and he has scheduled a White House conference on the subject for October and a series of regional panels thereafter.

The final pact will face strong opposition in the Senate, where ratification is required. In late July, the Senate passed 95-0 a resolution that urges the president to forgo signing any climate treaty that would hurt the economy.

The treaty stems from a 1992 international convention on climate change. The convention called on developed nations to reduce voluntarily their emissions of so-called greenhouse gases -- mostly carbon dioxide that results from burning fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas -- to pre-1990 levels by 2000.

At a climate conference in 1995, the Clinton administration proposed "a legally binding target" on the emissions in the belief that voluntary restrictions were ineffective. The Kyoto treaty would lock those goals into international law.

Proponents of the treaty say it is needed to prevent man-made pollution from warming the Earth's climate, which would result in a host of ecological disasters. Critics say scientific evidence does not justify those conclusions, and they dispute the value of a treaty that would allow poor nations to increase their pollution but would saddle businesses in developed countries with costly new restrictions.

In practical terms, implementing a global-warming treaty is expected to result in a "carbon tax" that would increase the cost and discourage the use of energy. Even studies by the administration have concluded that curbing emissions under the treaty would result in sharp increases in the prices of gasoline, electricity, and natural gas and would force "significant reductions in output and employment" in the U.S. chemical, metal, paper, and petroleum industries.

Because of the potential threat to jobs and economic growth, labor unions have joined business groups in opposing the global-warming treaty. The major business group involved in the scientific and policy debate is the Global Climate Coalition, established in 1989 and based in Washington. The coalition includes the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and various trade associations and private companies.