Training your eye to see the future - consumer trends forecasting

Nation's Business, March, 1988 by Nancy L. Croft

Training Your Eye To See The Future

Wouldn't you like to know how companies such as Stouffer Foods Corporation seem to predict what will be hot with consumers before everyone else does? Stouffer was one of the first frozen-food manufacturers to capitalize on the health, fitness and convenience crazes with its microwavable Lean Cuisine dinners. Other frozen-food manufacturers scrambled for a piece of the pie. But Stouffer got the biggest slice.

Big corporations pay consultants and market researchers millions of dollars to determine what products will be "in" in the future. But what if your company can't afford to spend millions on market research? What can you do?

You can be your own trend-tracking sleuth, says Faith Popcorn, founder and CEO of New York-based Brain Reserve, Inc. She ought to know. She has helped giants such as Pillsbury Company spot the changing values, needs and lifestyles that make consumers favor one product over another.

There really is no mystery to predicting trends, she says. By observing consumer attitudes and actions, small-business people can tailor their products and services to meet changing needs-- even before consumers realize they have them.

Some of the trend-spotting techniques that Popcorn recommends to large corporations could work also for Nation's Business readers trying to gain an edge in the marketplace for their smaller companies. Here are her suggestions for small-business owners and managers:

Read as many current publications as possible.

Watch the top 10 TV shows--even if you have to tape them for later viewing. "They're indicators of consumers' attitudes and values and what they're going to be buying," says Popcorn.

See the top 10 movies. They also influence consumer behavior. For instance, Popcorn has forecast that bowling will be the hottest sport this spring. One of the tip-offs: In a scene in "Fatal Attraction," a hit movie last fall, the main characters--a young, affluent married couple--had a good time with their friends at a bowling alley.

Talk to at least 100 to 150 consumers a year about what they're buying and why. "Do one-on-one interviews at supermarkets, on the street, wherever you find consumers," says Popcorn. "You've got to go beyond your own structured marketing research, because reports are distorting. You've got to talk to consumers yourself."

Talk with the 10 smartest people in your life. The observations of people whose opinions you value can give you another perspective on where the future lies and how your business fits in.

Listen to your children. "It's very important to understand what your children are doing, what they're believing and what they're watching on TV," says Popcorn. "They can be tremendous guides for you." Also talk to their friends, who might be more honest with you than your children are, she says.

Putting Those Trends To Work

Make a list of the trends you have spotted. Write a brief description of your product's benefits and its position in the marketplace. Examine the list to see where your product keeps up with the trends and where it lags behind.

For instance, you may spot an increased demand for microwavable foods with a down-home image and low sodium content, while you see a decline in sales of your company's country-ham TV dinners packaged in aluminum foil.

"If you see your product falling away from too many trends, you've got to either change your product or dump it, because you know you're going to have a failure," says Popcorn.

Your country-ham TV dinner may have a down-home image, but it fails to meet the trend toward convenience and microwave cooking. It also falls short because of its high salt content.

To put some life back into sales, you might consider changing your packaging. Eliminating the aluminum foil, which cannot be used in microwave ovens, will open a new market for your product. And to appeal to the health-conscious, you might reduce the sodium content. Bring this to buyers' attention by printing "lower salt content" on the package label. "Every company that has made it has followed this process," says Popcorn.

She cites Ben & Jerry's Homemade, Inc., an ice-cream franchise in Waterbury, Vt. She says the company "matched on about 10 out of 10 trends." Among them: real people behind the name (Ben and Jerry), premium value (indicated by a premium price), complication of product (more flavors than simply vanilla, chocolate and strawberry) and concern about customers' opinions, as shown by the listing of a toll-free phone number on the product's package. That concern, Popcorn says, is in step with the trend toward integrity and humanization.

Consumers sometimes are willing to overlook certain drawbacks in a product if it has enough compensating pluses, Popcorn says. "Take Lean Cuisine," she says. "It was quality, health and fitness, gourmet, upscale, convenient-- it fit about 15 trends. The only trend it didn't fit was that it had a lot of chemicals, but it had so much going for it that people were willing to overlook it." It was also expensive, she says, but people were willing to pay the price for a perceived value.