Dead heat: the health consequences of global warming could be many

Science News, July 3, 2004 by Sid Perkins

Because children typically breathe faster than adults do, they're exposed to more of the noxious gases and particles. More than one-fourth of the children in Harlem have asthma, a much higher proportion than in most other areas of the United States, says Epstein.

"This [study] is a real wake-up call for people who mistakenly think global warming is only going to be a problem way off in the future or that it has no impact on their lives in any meaningful way," says Rogers. "The problem is here today for these [urban] children, and it is only going to get worse."

Easing the Heat

Chicago experiences show that hot spells can be less deadly

Heat waves are among nature's greatest killers and one of nature's unrecognized hazards, says Erik Bowles of Kansas State University in Manhattan. Heat waves claim more victims than all other weather events combined, he notes. Since 1991, heat waves have killed an average of 235 U.S. residents each year, while floods claimed 86, tornadoes took 59, and lightning killed 53 people.

Most often, says Bowles, the victims of heat waves live in inner cities, have lower-than-average incomes, and are sick or elderly. Because heat waves seem less threatening than more-dramatic weather phenomena, such as tornadoes or thunderstorms, people don't feel an immediate need to run for cover and therefore adopt a "wait-it-out" mentality, he notes.

Heat waves strike broad regions, rather than the limited swaths directly influenced by thunderstorms or tornadoes. Yet because heat waves are more easily predicted and often build slowly many deaths that result from them are preventable, says Karen E. Smoley-Tomic of the University of Alberta in Edmonton.

The disparate results of two recent heat waves that struck Chicago seem to bolster that contention. Heat-related deaths during the first scorcher in July 1995 claimed 739 Chicago residents--more than double the number that died in the great Chicago Fire of 1871. Most victims were elderly and poor, lived in the heart of the city, and either had no air conditioning or couldn't afford to turn it on. In some areas of the city, fear of crime deterred some people from opening their windows. Statistical analyses later showed that the residents at greatest risk for dying lived alone and were socially isolated.

After 1995, Chicago instituted a citywide plan to check on elderly residents and provide access to air-conditioned areas in schools. Those plans appear to have paid off in 1999, when a midsummer heat wave claimed only about 110 Chicagoans. The peak heat and humidity during that year's heat wave were slightly lower than those experienced in the 1995 event, but the 1999 hot spell lasted more than a week longer, says Michael A. Palecki, a climatologist at the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign. Although it's tough to directly compare the two events, he notes, "it's pretty clear that the city's response to the 1999 heat wave saved hundreds of lives."--S.P.