The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World

Science News, June 19, 2004

PAUL ROBERTS

The world's politics, economics, and culture are largely founded on one natural resource--oil--writes Roberts. And the dependence on oil increases as more of the world becomes affluent. China, for instance, is now the world's largest energy consumer. Roberts reports "conservative" estimates that easily accessible oil will run out within the next 30 years, and he considers the problem from all angles, including the global conflicts that are likely to arise as supplies diminish, the economic vulnerability that accompanies dependence on a scarce resource, and the environmental hazards of oil use. Natural gas, hydrogen, solar, and wind power are all seeing booms and could become increasingly important ways to reduce dependence on oil. Even more important would be a change of lifestyle. Roberts reflects on to the 1970s, when the gas crisis forced people to become more energy efficient. However, with decreased demand came lower prices and a return to higher consumption. He reports that a modest increase in fuel efficiency--to 32 miles per gallon for cars and 24 mpg for light trucks--would produce a savings of 2 million barrels of oil a day by 2010, about twice as much as could be produced by drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Roberts' scope is broad as he considers a worldwide problem. HM, 2004, 389 p., hardcover, $26.00.