Dayne weighs heavily in the minds of NFL scouts

Sporting News, The, March 6, 2000 by Dan Pompei

What makes Wisconsin running back Ron Dayne a nightmare for cornerbacks in the open field also could be what makes him a nightmare for the NFL team that selects him in the draft next month--his size.

Dayne's measurement at the scouting combine last week was 5-10 3/4, 259 pounds. His thighs looked like they have a greater circumference than most steering wheels. His rear end appeared capable of causing a lunar eclipse.

Size is what enabled Dayne to run for 7,125 yards (including bowl games), more than any college player ever. Size is what will make him a first-round pick in the April draft (despite my regrettable omission of Dayne in a previous mock draft).

Some NFL men who are trolling for running backs, such as Gunther Cunningham of the Chiefs and Bobby Ross of the Lions, like their ball carrier bigger than trailer homes. But many others prefer a more compact back. In fact, Thomas Jones of Virginia, at 5-10, 216, is the consensus choice as the highest-rated running back. There's also a chance Shaun Alexander of Alabama, at 5-11 3/4, 218, could be selected before Dayne.

Based strictly on production, Dayne unquestionably would be the highest-rated back and probably the highest-rated player overall. But NFL teams know a fine line exists between being able to buckle a linebacker and being able to buckle a pair of pants. Dayne's weight is a potential problem. Backs Dayne can be compared to include Jerome Bettis, Natrone Means, Bam Morris and Ironhead Heyward. All have gained weight at the expense of gaining yards at some points in their NFL careers. Other big backs who also have gotten too big include Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis and Rodney Hampton.

Dayne did little to quell concerns at the combine. Several NFL talent evaluators said he looked "real flabby" and had a spare tire. Dayne might have the type of body that always will make him look as if he were born to be a Sumo wrestler. Wisconsin coaches say he is most effective between 245 and 250 pounds, well below his combine weight. Dayne, who got as high as 270 at Wisconsin, also refused to work out at the combine, saying he only started getting in shape a week and a half ago.

"The biggest concern with him is he'll get too big," says one NFC personnel director. "Then he'll lose stamina. If he loses a step in quickness, he can't get the corner, and he becomes just a pounder. Every big back who runs well has to get the corner, otherwise he's not effective."

When big backs gain weight, they also lose elusiveness. Dayne doesn't have much wiggle to begin with, but one of his best qualities is his "great little cutback move inside," according to Lions vice president of player personnel Ron Hughes. With less ability to elude, Dayne would be subject to taking more hits and harder hits, and that could affect his durability and even his aggression. The most notable big backs in the last two drafts, Enis and Williams, gained weight and subsequently struggled with injuries as rookies. There was a direct correlation between their weight and their lack of production.

Even if Dayne is in shape, he almost certainly won't be able to break as many long runs as he did at Wisconsin. Last season he had 19 runs of more than 19 yards. Over the course of his college career he had 65 such runs. Most of those runs were enhanced by yards gained after contact. According to Wisconsin's sports information department, 54 percent of Dayne's yards last year came after contact. On one typical 19-yard run against Michigan, Dayne brushed off safety Tommy Hendricks like a coffee cake crumb on his jersey, and then did not go down until he was hit by a fourth defender. Dayne rarely was tackled by one man in college.

It wasn't that Dayne was just beating up the weak sisters on Wisconsin's schedule, either. He played well against the best defenses he faced, averaging 6.3 yards per rush against Michigan State, 5.0 yards against Ohio State and 4.0 against Michigan. Against opponents who were ranked in the Top 25, Dayne averaged 120.3 yards per game over his career.

But in the NFL, he'll consistently find bigger defenders. And more significantly, Dayne will find faster defenders. "The big back who was quick enough and strong enough to nm over one linebacker in college finds that on this level he's surrounded by three linebackers and a safety," Titans general manager Floyd Reese says. "Fifteen-yard gains in college are 2-yard gains in our league. Unless he has great, great feet and balance like Bettis, he's not going to be quite as effective."

Dayne has the great feet and balance of Bettis--as long he doesn't get too big. There are times you'd like to see Dayne get his legs up higher to get through congestion, but he has "the feet of a much smaller guy," according to Chargers G.M. Bobby Beathard. He also has the vision and instinct to find the cracks. Hughes puts it this way: "He's an efficient runner. His body is not all over the field."

Power is what makes Dayne special, though. He goes backward about as often as running water. He gets stronger as the game progresses.