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Bracket breakdown

Sporting News, The,  March 11, 2002  

* Who will get the fourth No. 1 seed? Oklahoma.

* Where will Duke and Maryland be sent? Duke, South; Maryland, East.

* How many teams will get in from the Big East? Six.

* Who's going to win it all? Considering Illinois was our pick before the season started, maybe we should hold off on that one for a while.

But that's about the only prediction we're holding back. You can find everything else you need to know about all the contenders for the 65 spots in the NCAA Tournament heading into Sunday's bracket announcement (6 p.m. ET, CBS).

In addition to seeing who's likely to be in and who will be left out, you can get some dandy nuggets of analysis on what each team does well--and not so well--so you can start filling out your bracket.

By the way, a big assist on the RPIs (and each team's record in the last 10 games) goes to Jerry Palm's website: www.collegerpi.com.

Team-by-team analysis

Alabama. The Crimson Tide can play fast or slow, thanks to a potent inside threat in Erwin Dudley and a bevy of good guards. Freshman point Maurice Williams, a great penetrator, has done a stellar job running a veteran team. Dudley is near the top of the SEC in points, rebounding and field-goal percentage, but anyone who can get him in foul trouble has a chance because the Tide doesn't have much of a Plan B in the paint. South Carolina and Auburn thwarted the Tide by slowing it down.

Kentucky. The Wildcats average 78 points, but their trademark is tenacious defense. Teams that don't handle the ball well can come undone. But a team that has a defensive matchup for 6-9 senior forward Tayshaun Prince should be all right. With guard Keith Bogans mired in a seasonlong slump, Prince needs help with the scoring load from players such as forward Marquis Estill and point guard Cliff Hawkins.

Florida. The Gators can run for 40 minutes and love to generate easy baskets out of their press, but their halfcourt offense is overlooked. Center Udonis Haslem is deadly down low. If a team has a defender who can keep Brett Nelson from getting clean outside looks, it helps. The best way to beat Florida is go at Haslem and get him in foul trouble.

Mississippi State. Mario Austin gives the Bulldogs one of the SEC's best low-post players. The play of point guard Derrick Zimmerman and the offensive rebounding of Austin and Michael Golar are big reasons State's shooting percentage is so solid (49.2 percent from field). But MSU struggles on the road.

Georgia. The Bulldogs are not great 3-point shooters, but they're effective and athletic inside the arc. Forwards Chris Daniels and Jarvis Hayes are active on the glass, and Ezra Williams, at 6-5, is a big shooting guard who can rebound. But teams with depth and big bodies who can box out are trouble.

Mississippi. Coach Rod Barnes has disciplined athletes who know how to close out on defense and work hard on the boards. The Rebels lead the SEC in 3-point shooting and free-throw percentage and play a physical, pressuring man defense. But opponents who have good big men and good ballhandlers pose a problem. At 5-5, point guard Jason Harrison is a target. --Mike Strange

1 SEC

LOOKING GOOD

                        Likely                           Coach
Team              RPI    seed      Records     L10   (NCAA record)

Alabama             6     2      24-5 (12-3)   8-2   Mark Gottfried
                                                       (0-2)
Kentucky            8     3      19-8 (10-6)   7-3   Tubby Smith
                                                       (18-7)
Florida            14     4      21-7 (10-6)   6-4   Billy Donovan
                                                       (8-3)
Mississippi St.    12     4      23-7 (10-6)   7-3   Rick Stansbury
                                                       (0-0)
Georgia            11     5      21-8 (10-6)   5-5   Jim Harrick
                                                       (17-14)
ON THE BUBBLE

                        Likely                           Coach
Team              RPI    seed      Records     L10   (NCAA record)

Mississippi        48    11      18-9 (8-7)    5-5   Rod Barnes
                                                       (3-2)

Team-by-team analysis

Maryland. The Terrapins, much like Duke, are an up-tempo, in-your-face outfit that is an extension of coach Gary Williams' personality. Juan Dixon gets in more passing lanes than anybody in the country, and the development of Byron Mouton and Chris Wilcox means point guard Steve Blake has several options on the break. The Terps can beat anybody, but they're especially successful against teams that lack an adequate ballhandler in the middle of a press break. If a team can slow the pace with an active zone defense, it has a chance.

Duke. Is there a faster team in America--not only afoot but with the pass? The Blue Devils rely primarily on a four-out, one-in formation, and their ability to zing the ball around the perimeter of a zone means that somebody is open for a 3-pointer on almost every possession. Their defensive pressure can chew up a team that has suspect guards. It used to be easy to assume the Devils, who overplay the wings, would struggle against a back-door offense such as NC State's. But they whipped the Wolfpack twice. Duke needs Carlos Boozer to stay out of foul trouble, so an opponent with a lot of bulk and depth in the post could present problems.