3 the hard way

Sporting News, The, March 15, 1999 by Steve Harrison

Long range. Long odds. Although the percentages of firing from 3-point range often can mean salvation for tournament underdogs, it proves to be nothing more than a long shot for the favorites.

It happens every spring. The 3-point arc suddenly seduces a team like a young man prospecting for riches.

A team--most likely a favorite--is down a few points, say, 10 with eight minutes left. Terrified of losing to an Illinois State or a Western Michigan, the 3-point line starts to look very tempting.

Players panic. They shoot. They lose.

The NCAA Tournament is littered with great teams turned dumb, great teams that shot themselves out of a championship.

Kentucky shot 36 3's and missed 29 against North Carolina in 1995.

And who can forget Kansas, the team that annually abuses the 3-pointer? In their last four NCAA losses, the Jayhawks averaged 21 percent shooting from behind the line.

In last year's shocking 80-75 second-round loss to Rhode Island, Kansas abandoned the midrange game. The Jayhawks, who never trailed by more than 10, attempted 28 3's, making five. Averaging 15 attempts all season, the Jayhawks shot 17 in the second half.

For some, the 3-pointer can be a salvation. For others, it's fool's gold.

"You see this all the time," Texas coach Rick Barnes says.

"Players don't understand two minutes is an eternity. You can put a guy on the line and maybe he'll make just one, and you can go down and get two. It often doesn't do you any good to go down and launch a 3."

"You don't have to shoot 3's so early," ESPN analyst Digger Phelps says. "You can go to the post, maybe get fouled, and score with the clock stopped."

If it seems that each year the 3-pointer becomes more used and more abused, you're right. Since its inception in 1987, the number of attempts has risen steadily while the percentage of shots made has fallen. Why? Some say defenses extend themselves more. Others suggest players are more interested in slashing to the goal, making a highlight tape, than practicing 3's.

But the quality of shooters isn't the point. It's the quality and quantity of attempts that matter in March. The trey is a great equalizer for underdogs.

Would Valparaiso have beaten Ole Miss last year without 3-point success? No.

Would Northern Arizona nearly have beaten Cincinnati? Not a chance.

But underdogs have little to lose. In the NCAAs, the 3-pointer can be ruinous, especially for the higher seeds.

The mantra of March is that to advance you have to have experienced guards. Which is true. But what isn't said is that being experienced means knowing when not to shoot. Since the 3 debuted in 1987, 11 of the last 12 national champions attempted fewer 3's throughout the tournament than their opponents. Those 12 champions combined to play 72 NCAA Tournament games, and in only 17 games did they attempt more 3's than their opponents.

Of course, when you are behind, you are going to take more 3-point gambles to catch up. When Tennessee lost to Illinois State in overtime in the first round last year, it attempted 29 3's vs. its season average of 19. When Clemson fell to Western Michigan, the Tigers put up 20 3's after averaging 15. The numbers don't lie: When it comes to 3's, less is more.

Kentucky in 1996, the one champion that attempted more 3-point shots than its opponents, did shoot fewer than it had in years past. In the wake of a disastrous loss to North Carolina in 1995, coach Rick Pitino emphasized defending the 3 more than making it. In the process, the Wildcats averaged 18.6 attempts in 1996 (16.2 in the tournament), the year they beat Syracuse for the title, compared with 25.2 3's during the previous six seasons.

"One of the hardest things is to make your kids understand the 3 isn't always the answer," says Rutgers coach Kevin Bannon, whose Scarlet Knights rank among the nation's 3-point percentage leaders this season, shooting at just less than 40 percent. "They see other teams come from behind using it, and they get caught up in it. When teams start shooting the 3 too early, the lead often gets bigger."

So why do teams succumb--and how can they avoid the pitfalls of their predecessors?

* It's a long season. Arizona coach Lute Olson says by tournament time, some shooters don't have any spring left in their legs. A shot that fell in January falls short in March--Duke's Trajan Langdon and Cincinnati's Melvin Levett come to mind as players who annually fade late in the season. Teams also defend the 3 better--and smarter--than in the regular season.

"You aren't getting open looks anymore," Olson says. "Everyone plays a little harder and a little tighter."

* Pressure. In January, if a Michigan State or a Connecticut loses a gimme, it's no big deal. In March, it's history. Which is why players panic and pull the trigger far too early.

When a lower seed leads a favorite, it is most likely building its lead with the trey, because an underdog rarely has an inside presence--and the 3-pointer can become an equalizer.

"Nerves can also play a factor," Olson says. "The longer the other team stays in the game, the more pressure builds. If they're behind, they think they have to get it back all at once. And that can lead to bad shots."