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Sporting News, The, March 18, 2005 by Benson Taylor
It starts as a murmur in early January, when RPI gradually gets sprinkled in among BCS talk on the various sports outlets. By the time March rolls around, all this bracket-projecting business has reached a crescendo, with virtually every major website proclaiming its predicted field of 65.
Yes, the bracketheads have taken over. Right now, we're living in their world, and if you're a fan of a so-called bubble team, you've been checking their sites daily, sighing when your favorite school is in and sweating when it's out.
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Of course, the ins and outs don't matter until this Sunday--Selection Sunday--when the field becomes official. And although the experts have been able to make predictions with a high degree of accuracy in the past, this year's bracket is more uncertain because of a tweak to the Rating Percentage Index formula. So now is a good time to take a step back and look at the entire process the NCAA selection committee uses to put together the bracket.
Q What are the key criteria in discussions regarding at-large teams?
Although the RPI is every fan's favorite tool, the committee employs various criteria--including intuition--and makes use of what it calls a "nitty-gritty" report, which can compare any number of teams in any number of areas. You'll notice, however, that the RPI has a heavy influence on the nitty-gritty details:
* Division I record
* Overall RPI
* Nonconference record
* Nonconference RPI
* Conference record
* Conference RPI
* Road record
* Record in last 10 games
* Record against teams ranked 1 to 50 by RPI
* Record against teams ranked 51 to 100 by RPI
* Record against teams ranked 101 to 200 by RPI
* Record against teams ranked below 200 by RPI
* Record against other teams that are under consideration
In past years, committee members might have had to sift through thousands of pieces of paper to get at all that information. Now, each member has a laptop in the room and can access reports electronically.
Q Who's on the committee, and when do they begin looking at teams?
Led by Iowa athletic director Bob Bowlsby, the committee is composed of 10 athletic directors and conference commissioners. They gathered in Indianapolis on Wednesday, and after some serious carb-loading on fine Italian food and a good night's rest, they began four days of intense bracket scrutiny--figuring out not only the selection of the field but also the seeding and placement of teams.
Their research, though, started long before this week. Each committee member has been staying on top of college hoops, watching games on satellite TV and in person as much as possible. The committee also met in Indianapolis a month before Selection Sunday for a dress rehearsal of sorts.
2005 SELECTION COMMITTEE
Karl Benson, WAC commissioner
Bob Bowlsby, Iowa athletic director
Chris Hill, Utah athletic director
Floyd Kerr, Southern University athletic director
Jon LeCrone, Horizon League commissioner
Craig Littlepage, Virginia athletic director
Gerald Myers, Texas Tech athletic director
Torn O'Connor, George Mason athletic director
Mike Slive, SEC commissioner
Gary Waiters, Princeton athletic director
Q Can I crash the party or do some secret lobbying for my team?
Good luck. The 15th floor of Indy's downtown Westin is tightly secured, and only NCAA officials and select hotel staff are allowed on the floor. The only folks the committee members might talk to are conference commissioners, to inquire about last-minute information, such as the injury status of a key player.
Q How will the new RPI affect the process?
That's this year's overriding question. Under the new formula--which still uses a combination of a team's winning percentage (25 percent), opponents' winning percentage (50 percent) and opponents' opponents' winning percentage (25 percent)--road victories are weighted more heavily than home wins. Home losses also do more damage to a team's RPI than road losses.
According to Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com, 15 mid-majors are in the top 50. In the past, the committee has been criticized for not giving mid-majors enough credit. Under the old formula, only eight would have been in the top 50. In a recent teleconference, Bowlsby said he thinks the new RPI is an accurate representation of the mid-majors' strength.
So far, the bracket experts have varying opinions on how this will play out on Selection Sunday. At one point early last week, Palm's site had four Mid-American Conference teams in the field; later in the week it had one team from the MAC and three from the Missouri Valley.
Q How can we be sure a conference commissioner doesn't show favoritism to his own teams?
There are several steps to ensure this doesn't happen. For instance, an athletic director or commissioner cannot vote for the team or teams he represents. He can answer general questions about his school or conference but must leave the room when the selection and seeding process reach his area of affiliation. No one from the Big East is on this year's committee, so don't go crying conspiracy if that league gets eight bids.
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