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Bracket barriers: several teams—either recently or traditionally—have stumbled at particular points in the NCAA Tournament. Is this the year for a breakthrough?

Sporting News, The, March 25, 2005 by Mike DeCourcy

FIRST ROUND

Winthrop

The Eagles are making their fifth NCAA Tournament trip in seven seasons under coach Gregg Marshall. They lost their three previous first-round games by an average of 36.7 points and fell in the initial opening-round "play-in" game to Northwestern State in 2001.

Winthrop missed the tournament the past two seasons. Marshall says there was one benefit to that: "More time to recruit."

This year's Eagles feature a deep rotation. Their most interesting player might be 6-10 Craig Bradshaw, who played for New Zealand's 2004 Olympic team and is a 43.7 percent 3-point shooter.

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Although he starts three sophomores and a freshman, Marshall views this team as his best-and the best-constructed for advancement in the tournament. The Eagles face Gonzaga in the first round-an uphill battle to be sure but not nearly as bad as the star-laden Duke team they played in 2002.

SECOND ROUND

Cincinnati

Six times since 1997, the Bearcats have been seeded fourth or better and failed to advance to the Sweet 16, The story of that slump includes bad breaks, bad luck and, well, a fair dose of bad offense.

In 1997, Cincinnati had a 1-point lead with less than 40 seconds left when UC guard Darnell Burton tripped over an opposing player and was called for traveling. Iowa State then scored the winning basket. In 1998, Cincinnati had a 2-point lead when West Virginia guard Jarrod West banked in a desperation 3-point heave at the buzzer. In 2000, a Cincinnati team ranked No. 1 in the nation lost Oscar Robertson Trophy winner Kenyon Martin when he broke his leg one week before the NCAAs.

But the common thread in most of Cincinnati's second-round ousters has been a lack of offensive production. The Bobcats failed to reach 70 points in four of those games, mostly because of an absence of effective point guard play. With the Bearcats moving 6-7 James White to the point late in the season, that's still a problem.

SWEET 16

Pittsburgh

The Panthers have become a force in the Big East but have been eliminated in the regional semifinals three years in a row. Two of the three teams that eliminated The Panthers (Marquette and Oklahoma State) went to the Final Four. Pitt's best chance to get past the Sweet 16 probably was its first, when it lost in overtime against Kent State.

Pitt's premature eliminations partly were the result of its nonconference schedules, which led to poorer seedings than the teams' strength warranted. Last year, for instance, the Panthers Were 28-4 in the regular season and went to the Big East Tournament title game--but had only the 45th-best RPI strength were fortunate to be a No. 3 seed but were good enough to be a No. 2.

Pitt's schedule was week again this season, but will be less of an issue with the Panthers not holding a high seed. The difference between this team and its predecessors is that it can score, although that requires wing Antonio Graves to be playing aggressively And confidently.

ELITE EIGHT

Wake Forest

Tim Duncan could not get the Demon Deacons past the Elite Eight and into the Final Four. Will Chris Paul be able to?

Wake Forest last reached the Final Four in 1962. This is me Deacs' 16th NCAA appearance since that singular achievement. Only a handful of schools have made more tournament trios in that period without reaching the big stage, led by Temple with 22.

In other words--if you're getting in that often, eventually you figure to get lucky. That hasn't been the case for Wake, which has run into some major regional final roadblocks. The '96 Deacs wound up in the same region as Kentucky, me best NCAA champion of the past two decades. The '84 team lost to Hakeem Olajuwon and Houston. The '77 team lost to eventual national champion Marquette.

This year's team is one of Wake Forest's best. These Deacons don't have Duncan inside, but they have a greater variety of offensive weapons. They have the sort of variety--low post threat Eric Williams and multiple perimeter options led by Justin Gray--generate baskets when they need them.

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS

North Carolina

It's not as if Carolina has never won at this level. Goodness knows it has. But the past four times the Tar Heels reached the Final Four, they exited in the semifinals. In at least the first three of those Final Four visits, they were beaten by teams with inferior talent.

Carolina almost certainly would be the most talented team in this year's Final Four. Point guard Raymond Felton and center Sean May had All-American-type seasons. Freshman forward Marvin Williams is the most gifted player in the college game. So these Tar Heels will have to succeed where Antawn Jamison and Vince Carter could not, where Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse could not.

These players, though most of them own three or four years of college experience, have won just a single NCAA Tournament game--last year over Air Force. They should be used to tournament pressure by the time they get to the Sweet 16, and they will get there because of their routine dominance of inferior teams. But more closely approaching a national championship will be entirely different, At least there are fellow Tar Heels--Tar Heels alums--they can turn to for advice.

Bracket barriers: several teams—either recently or traditionally—have stumbled at particular points in the NCAA Tournament. Is this the year for a breakthrough?

Sporting News, The, March 25, 2005 by Mike DeCourcy

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