An age minimum will have a maximum benefit: David Stern's age-minimum dream is almost a reality, and the result will boost the NBA. But if you're a fan of college hoops, this plan could be a nightmare

Sean Deveney

Imagine this scenario: A kid--say, an 18-year-old--with springs-in-his-shoes athletic ability, a classic NBA frame, long arms and a lifelong dream of playing pro basketball has the attention of scouts. But he is raw. Can't shoot. Can't defend. Can't tell a pick from a roll. In the modern NBA, this kind of thing comes along about as often as a Tuesday.

If you're a general manager on draft day, do you pick the kid? Maybe, if you can afford to wait and pay a player who might not pan out, if you can afford to use a roster spot on a guy who won't play a meaningful minute in his first two seasons. If you take him, you had better be very confident that your coaching staff will be willing to work with the kid in practice and drill him every day. You'd better be sure your coach won't hold a grudge against you for giving him an unmolded lump of clay who won't help win games for a few years.

That's a tough pickle for a G.M., and it has become a problem for the NBA--too many too-young players are taking up space in the league, dragging down fundamentals and wasting coaches' time. For years, the proposed way to alleviate that has been a 20-year-old age minimum. Make a rule that keeps the kids out, and, presto, the problem is solved.

Multiple sources confirm that, barring a breakdown, the 20-year-old age minimum will be a reality in the next collective bargaining agreement, which ideally would be completed this summer. NBA union chief Billy Hunter originally came out firmly against the age minimum, but that was before he had a real sense of how the league's rank and file (i.e., the veterans) felt. "Most players," says one prominent agent, "are not going to be teenagers again." Thus, Hunter has relented.

The age minimum is not likely to be quite as simple as it sounds. College basketball junkies who think the rule change will send the country's best young talent back to the NCAA ranks will be disappointed. The NBA is looking out for itself with the age minimum, trying to protect the quality of play in the league--as it should. The new proposal won't keep kids from turning pro and collecting legitimate paychecks (rather than those shady payments from college boosters and assistant coaches). That's because the league wants to tie the age minimum to an expansion of its developmental league, the NBDL, which will include 10 teams (up from six) next season. Eventually, the league would like to have 15 NBDL teams, with two NBA teams splitting each minor league roster.

The result probably would go like this: Players who want to enter the NBA from high school still can put in for the draft, but they will be required to go to the NBDL first. There they will collect their full rookie-scale salaries--a wrinkle that has made the proposal palatable for Hunter. NBA teams that own the players' rights can let those players develop in the minor league and bring them up when they are ready.

This is an exciting step. Fundamentals will improve as young players get better instruction and more game experience. But this is not going to send kids back to college. In fact, it could encourage more prep players to skip college. Go back to our 18-year-old star, for example. If you're a G.M. considering drafting the kid, you're more likely to do so knowing you can send him to the NBDL without weighing down your roster or coaching staff. You still get all of his positives and potential, with much less risk.

And if more teams are willing to take chances on raw young players and pay them millions in the minors, then more of those raw young players will come to the NBA through the NBDL. The age minimum is not going to save the college game, nor will it take agents and sneaker companies out of high school basketball. It's simply going to make the NBA better.

Get in while you can

Assuming the league is successful in putting its age-minimum plan into effect, this could be the final draft in which high school players go directly to NBA rosters. Mat means the top prep players could enter this year's draft to dodge a required tour in the NBDL.

1 Gerald Green, SF, Gulf Shores Academy (Texas). Green is the only potential lottery pick coming out of high school this year. He's a 6-8 player with athleticism who can handle the ball, get to the rim and shoot.

2 Monta Ellis, G, Lanier High (Miss.). At 6-3, he is too small to be a shooting guard but is a pure scorer with a nice outside shot.

3 Louis Williams, G, South Gwinnett (Ga.). He seems intent on entering the draft. But like Ellis, Williams is too small (6-2) to play his natural position of shooting guard.

4 Andray Blatche, F, South Kent Prep (N.J.). Good size (6-11) and a nice shooting touch have helped his stock, but he has no back-to-the basket game.

5 C.J, Miles, SG, Skyline High (Texas), He needs to add weight and still is very raw. His defense and explosiveness are not yet at an NBA level.

speedreads

Chances are good coach Larry Brown won't be back with the Pistons next season. But for now, Brown is back on the sideline, and that makes Detroit a title contender again. No coach's presence is more valuable to his team than Brown's, whose intensity and demeanor rub off on his players

No Dominique Wilkins in the Hall of Fame? OK, so he was mostly a dunker and never won a championship. But he also was one of the most exciting and explosive scorers in league history, and if you have to be "just a dunker," then you would want to be Wilkins.

With nine in-season coaching changes already, here's hoping 76ers coach Jim O'Brien does not become No. 10. O'Brien was put in a difficult position when the team added an out-of-shape Chris Webber at the end of February. Just when O'Brien had made some adjustments to get Webber more involved, Webber injured his shoulder.

INSIDE DISH

Give credit to Bulls vice president John Paxson, and not just for his wildly successful draft last year, which netted G Ben Gordon, SF Luol Deng and PG Chris Duhon. Paxson also played the trade market well, foisting defenseless SG Jamal Crawford and overpaid F Jerome Williams on the Knicks and adding veterans PF Othella Harrington and SG Eric Piatkowski. The Bulls suffered a scare last week when C Eddy Curry began experiencing an irregular heartbeat. Harrington has filled in nicely, averaging 16.7 points and 6.3 rebounds in Curry's first three games out. Depth has been a strength for the Bulls, who have eight players averaging at least 24 minutes and only one (G Kirk Hinrich) who averages more than 30 minutes. * Another invaluable Bulls big man is F/C Antonio Davis, whose status as the team's veteran leader got a boost when he defended Hinrich in a preseason fight with the Wizards. Davis was not getting many minutes from coach Scott Skiles early in the season and quietly complained about it--it would be difficult to lead, he figured, if he did not have the credibility that comes with playing time. Skiles got the message, and Davis has become a regular. * Since returning from his persistent right hamstring injury, Timberwolves PG Sam Cassell has proved to be a valuable asset--off the bench. Cassell backed up PG Troy Hudson on March 20 and shot 7-for-9, leading the Timberwolves to a win over the Rockets. Since then, coach Kevin McHale has used Cassell off the bench, with good results. The Timberwolves won five of their first six games with Hudson starting ahead of Cassell. * The Nuggets' uptempo pace is a nice fit for F Eduardo Najera, acquired in a February trading-deadline deal. Najera has been piling up the minutes lately and has hit it off with the team's conditioning crew. Folks in Denver say he has lost as much as 15 pounds since the trade. * The offseason priority in Milwaukee, obviously, is to keep free-agent SG Michael Redd. But the No. 2 goal will be to address the team's porous interior defense. PF Joe Smith provides a nice offensive option, and C Dan Gadzuric plays welt in stretches, but neither has been tough or consistent enough to warrant a starting spot next season. * Of all the injuries suffered by the Pacers this season, the one to PG Jamaal Tinsley's left foot is the most disturbing; it has been around the longest and remains a mystery. Tinsley's left ankle was sore for much of last season and led to pain in his hamstring. When the playoffs came, he was noticeably limping. The same problem is plaguing him now, and he spent part of last week in New York trying to figure out what is wrong. The Pacers do not expect Tinsley back at full strength this season but want to figure out whether he can get back to normal for next season. * A big guy for NBA draftniks to keep an eye on is 7-1 Chicago State sophomore Deji Akindele, the Mid-Continent defensive player of the year. He has been working out at Chicago's Hoops the Gym with Michael Jordan's former trainer, Tim Grover. Word is, Akindeie has been impressive. He is very raw but has an NBA body and might be inclined to enter the draft because of the lack of big guys in this year's group.

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