The draft offers drama—and even more uncertainty than games

When I go to the Javits Center in New York this weekend, it will be my fifth straight year covering the NFL draft with Sporting News Radio. I can't wait. The draft is as exciting for me as any game I cover for FOX Sports in the fall.

The whole process fascinates me. Each team comes into the draft with a game plan based on months of preparation. Players have been graded, and needs have been assessed, but when the first team goes on the clock, all hell breaks loose. I love watching it unfold, with trades being made and players--who have been hyped or hammered for two months--getting taken higher or lower than anticipated. It has all the drama of a regular-season game, with cheering fans, media everywhere and even a ticking clock.

What it doesn't have is any degree of certainty. When NFL teams play one another, they study game film, stats and tendencies, and they have a pretty good idea of what to expect on Sunday. When NFL teams draft against one another, it's a crapshoot.

That's because, try as they might, NFL scouts aren't any better now at differentiating between the studs and stiffs than they were years ago. Teams still fall in love with guys because of their speed and strength. The poster boy for that phenomenon is Mike Mamula, whose great Combine workout prompted the Eagles to take him with the seventh overall choice in 1995. I got to know Mamula well during his six years in Philadelphia, and I couldn't engage him in a football conversation to save my life. It didn't surprise me that he never proved worthy of that lofty pick because he had no apparent interest in the game.

So teams have all this data, more than ever before, yet they're not drafting better. It's a tough job. Even if teams can avoid being blinded by measurables, they must project how well college talent translates to pro talent and how much impact a player's character and desire will have on the skills God gave him. We try to make it a science, but it's really an art, which is why one team can take Peyton Manning, the next can take Ryan Leaf and both can feel great about it--until they get on the field.

But, hey, that's the intrigue of the draft. It's great fun, as long as you're not the guy signing the bonus checks.

Brian Baldinger, an offensive lineman for 12 NFL seasons, will be part of Sporting News Radio's coverage of the draft (noon-7 p.m. ET Saturday and 1-5 p.m. ET Sunday). Listen online at radio.sportingnews.com.

DRAFT DISH

By War Room scouts

Though 49ers coach Mike Nolan made recent comments indicating he was leaning toward Cal QB Aaron Rodgers with the No. 1 pick, Nolan actually prefers Utah QB Alex Smith because of his upside. Coordinator Mike McCarthy, however, believes Rodgers is a better fit for the team's version of the West Coast offense. McCarthy knows Rodgers probably is a "what you see is what you get" type, but McCarthy likes what he sees.... The Combine drug test results are in, and the most notable player to test positive is Wisconsin DT Anttaj Hawthorne. With many defenses switching to a 3-4, Hawthorne's stock was rising because he has the potential to play nose tackle. Now, Hawthorne likely will slip to Day 2.... The Eagles are exploring a trade in which they would send DT Corey Simon and a draft pick to the Colts for RB Edgerrin James. Both players carry a franchise tag.... The Rams, who are picking at No. 19 overall, are hoping Florida State OT Alex Barron's stock continues to fall. They want to take a tackle early and never expected to have a shot at Barron. ... C Richie Incognito, who already had some baggage, hurt his knee at his pro day workout. The injury isn't considered serious; he should be ready for training camp. Look for Incognito to get drafted late as a value pick with upside.... Even though the Chiefs signed Kendrell Bell as a free agent, they need to draft more than one linebacker. They lost Monty Beisel to the Patriots, Scott Fujita needs ankle surgery, and Shawn Barber won't be ready until after the season starts.... The Broncos want to take a cornerback early. They have Champ Bailey, but the other starter, Lenny Walls, has an injury history and will be a free agent after 2005.... The Lions were inclined to take an offensive tackle in the first round, but instead they might target RT Scott Gragg, who will be released by the 49ers. Look for the Lions to draft a pass-rushing end to complement RE James Hall.

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