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Subtraction can lead to added wins: how much does it hurt to have a talented player leave school early? Sometimes, not at all

Sporting News, The, May 6, 2005

As news about early draft entrants is presented in your newspaper with the solemnity usually reserved for the obituaries, it might not hurt to be reminded that teams frequently survive these premature departures.

It damages any program to lose an Emeka Okafor or a Chris Paul--whether he plays two years, three years or four. But not everyone has such a profound effect on his team.

Consider these 2004 early departures: Andre Iguodala, Kris Humphries, Kirk Snyder and Trevor Ariza. The first three were taken within the first 16 picks of the draft; all played in the NBA this season. And all of their college teams improved in 2004-05. Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada and UCLA together won 26 more games and lost 18 fewer. The Gophers and Bruins went from sub-.500 to the NCAA Tournament.

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Once again there are some early entrants who won't be sorely missed next season.

Anthony Roberson, G, Florida. The grand totals for three years with Roberson as the Gators' primary ballhandler (calling him a point guard would be a stretch): 1,158 shot attempts, 246 assists, no NCAA Sweet 16s.

Roberson made a high percentage of his shots. He made a lot of big baskets. But he never demonstrated a feel for the game. Roberson is dynamic and skilled and might do well at the NBA level, even though he's only 6-1. But the Gators need to move on to rising sophomore Taurean Green or to incoming freshman Walter Hodge as their point guard.

Chris Taft, C, Pittsburgh. The Panthers can replace the 13.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game Taft produced as a sophomore. It'll be tougher to find someone who can manage more than 11 field-goal attempts for every one assist.

Pitt's concerns mostly are on the perimeter. It will be just fine with 7-0 Aaron Gray in the middle. He has better post moves than Taft and is unselfish. Gray does not move as well, but Taft was so unsound defensively that his athleticism rarely made a difference.

Charlie Villanueva, PF, Connecticut. During his two-year stay, Villanueva got a ring and more of a taste for defense and hard work. UConn got depth for its 2004 national title run and a key option on a '04-05 team that shared the Big East regular-season championship. But it was time to part.

The Huskies' best chance to win a third championship in eight years is to build its offense around small forward Rudy Gay. He's more gifted than Villanueva, and Gay's game is more reliable. UConn actually needs fewer scorers in its lineup; Ed Nelson or Hilton Armstrong can focus on rebounding at power forward.

Von Wafer, SG, Florida State. Though Wafer led the Seminoles in scoring, he didn't lead them anywhere worthwhile. They were 12-19 and won only four of 16 ACC games. Wafer was a handful for FSU coaches and, by the end of the season, barely was in the rotation. In his final five games, he averaged 3.0 points.

FSU started Jason Rich in Wafer's place the last few games. Rich needs to become a more assertive and accurate shooter, but he should be less of a headache than Wafer.

The Seminoles will be back over .500 next season. They will not be lamenting draft night this June.

speed read

Some college coaches are bothered that the NBA gives early-entry draft prospects roughly 10 weeks after the Final Four to make their ultimate decisions about entering the league. Too bad. This isn't about whether it's disruptive for particular college teams. It's about whether the players make the right decisions for their futures.

INSIDE DISH

Virginia took so long in its coaching search because one top booster believed a big-name candidate--such as the NBA's Mike Montgomery or Rick Carlisle or Kentucky's Tubby Smith--could be enticed by big money. But those guys already are earning great salaries in better situations. When Plan A didn't work, Virginia's administration became eager enough to hire Dave Leitao from DePaul that it agreed to swallow a contract buyout that, according to one source, is as much as $1.5 million. > Jerry Wainwright's name hasn't come up publicly--but it has privately--in DePaul's search for Leitao's replacement. Wainwright, who led UNC Wilmington and Richmond to NCAA Tournament bids, is a native of the Chicago area and was a successful high school coach there. He's an exceptional tactician, especially on defense. > The departure of Notre Dame PF Dennis Latimore mainly is the result of a minutes squeeze that likely would have developed in the frontcourt next season. Latimore was welcome to return, but because he is set to graduate and it was unlikely he'd play in front of freshman Luke Zeller and sophomore Rob Kurz, Latimore decided to end his college career. Irish C Torin Francis is expected to return despite declaring for the NBA draft. > Since being ruled academically ineligible during the season, Texas SF P.J. Tucker has pleased his coaches with greater devotion to schoolwork and strong showings in individual workouts. Texas also hopes to see C LaMarcus Aldridge back on the court soon, though no one is going to rush him. Coming off hip surgery, Aldridge is off crutches and appears to be doing well in his rehab. > Syracuse is trying to convince PG Josh wright that transferring isn't necessarily his best option.

Subtraction can lead to added wins: how much does it hurt to have a talented player leave school early? Sometimes, not at all

Sporting News, The, May 6, 2005

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