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Sporting News, The, May 20, 2005 by Rob Hurtt

I know how Roger Clemens and Brett Myers feel. My teams can't get me any wins, either. The Astros' Clemens and the Phillies' Myers each won only once in April despite finishing the month second and fourth in the National League in ERA. No. 3 on the list, the Marlins' Dontrelle Willis, was 5-0 in five starts.

Neither Clemens nor Myers is on my fantasy teams, but I own plenty of similar hard-luck pitchers. The A's Rich Harden (2.10 ERA in April) and the Padres' Jake Peavy (1.77) each had only two wins after five starts. That's better than Indians righthander Jake Westbrook, who threw three 8-inning gems in April but lost each of them. It didn't seem fair that the Orioles' Sidney Ponson--Sir 5-plus ERA--won four of his first six starts.

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Luck certainly plays a role, but there are other factors fantasy owners should consider when targeting wins.

Find a good pitcher ...

Would you really rather own Ponson instead of Clemens? Get the guy with the better stuff. Even if he doesn't win as much, he'll help in more categories: ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

on a winning team ...

It doesn't take a sabermetrician to figure out that pitchers who play for teams on the happy side of .500 have a better shot at winning than guys who play for last-place teams. Zack Greinke has great stuff, but the team supporting him doesn't.

with a reliable offense ...

Philadelphia was 25th in the majors in scoring after one month. Myers didn't get run support, but for some reason the Phillies had no trouble scoring for Jon Lieber--he won his first four starts. When you don't know what you're going to get, it's best to stay away.

and a reliable bullpen.

Last season, the Cubs' Mark Prior had 11 quality starts (six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs) but won just four of them. LaTroy Hawkins, who blew two potential wins, punished fantasy owners who didn't even own him.

M@IL BONDING

CHRIS BAHR ANSWERS YOUR QUESTIONS

Will the Mariners' Adrian Beltre regain his power stroke or end up being a middle-of-the-road third baseman?

Kevin Hoekstra, Sioux Falls, S.D.

Kevin: It should come as no shock that Beltre isn't on a 48-home run pace in 2005. His numbers with the Dodgers last season were monstrous, but his overall production was too far above his past performance to make a repeat realistic. Moving to a new league is another factor in Beltre's slow start. He still could hit 30 homers, but don't get your hopes up that he'll match or improve on his career year.

To submit a question to our fantasy experts, click on Daily Mail at fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball

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Sporting News, The, May 20, 2005 by Rob Hurtt

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