Statscape

Sporting News, The, May 26, 2003 by Steve Walters

Rockies reliever and SPORTING NEWS columnist Todd Jones says the Red Sox's closer-by-committee approach is doomed for two reasons: Guys without a "closer's mentality" can't handle ninth-inning pressure, and relievers pitch better when they have well-defined roles.

That reasoning sounds plausible, but there's no evidence it's true. Let's look at relievers who bounced between setup and closer roles last season, for example. There were 42 pitchers who recorded at least five holds and five save opportunities, ranging from Octavio Dotel to Tim Wakefield (who had five holds, five save chances and 15 starts). But the stats of those who bounced between two jobs are worth noting.

                              IP     ERA   HR/9IP   BB/9   K/9

Late and close situations     638   3.39    0.7      3.6   7.5
All other games             2,461   3.45    0.8      3.3   7.3

These numbers certainly challenge the notion that nonclosers will under pressure or can't handle changes from their set roles. It's not that there are nonclosers and closers; rather, there are good pitchers and better pitchers. The top 20 in saves last season had a collective ERA of 2.79. Teams with such a dominant pitcher will have a better bullpen. The Red Sox don't have a stopper: Their committee's ERA ranks 26th in the majors, 20th in late innings of close games. So let's blame their problems on their stuff, not their heads or hearts.

Steve Walters teaches sports economics at Loyola College in Maryland. E-mail him at swalters@loyola.edu.